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Tuesday Morning Marth: January 16

Edwin Budding
Published January 16, 2024

I am not afraid of eating shit. I embrace it. Earlier this week, I decided to revisit an old column I wrote at the end of 2022, in which I highlighted ten players who I believed would break out in 2023. None of them would go on to make the subsequent Top 100 of the year.

In all fairness, I don’t think these were bad picks. I still think very highly of all these players. Without going into the details behind each one, a mix of retirements, sudden national absences, and lack of travel ended up ruining their chances for that year. But with that said, I’m willing to be wrong once again. After all, being right is only that much sweeter when you’ve been wrong so many times.

For today’s column, I’m going to once again make ten sleeper picks for players who will break out in 2024. To ensure that they remain sleeper picks, I have also come up with a set of rules to ensure that I’m choosing players who truly qualify.

  • I’m not allowed to choose anyone who has made SSBMRank at any point of their career.
  • I’m not allowed to choose anyone who qualified for the Top 100 ballot in 2022 or 2023.
  • I’m not allowed to choose anyone who I already picked for last year’s edition of this column.
  • I’m not allowed to choose multiple people from the same region.
  • I’m not allowed to choose any participants of the Melee Stats Free Agent Showcase.
  • I’m not allowed to choose any of the players who made top eight at Eggdog Scramble 2.

Before we jump into the rest of the column, I want to explicitly state that one of the biggest factors that went into my picks was activity.  For a player to be selected, it’s not enough that they be good – they have to attend enough majors and regionals to qualify for the Top 100.

Epoodle (Tristate)

Epoodle’s come a long way since the pandemic. Back then, you could find Epoodle in every online bracket, where he seemingly came out of nowhere to be one of the scene’s most consistent Netplay grinders. Since then, however, he’s settled comfortably as one of the top Marth players of Tristate. You can usually find him each week either at Hall of Gaming in Connecticut or at The Nightclub in New York City.

There’s three matchups he especially excels in: Falco, Marth, and Peach. Earlier this month, he spoiled Kacey’s return to Tristate, he’s lately had Tazio’s number in Marth dittos, and after countless sets vs. Arty in Connecticut, he scored an upset over Bbatts at the Function 3’s pre-local. Of all the Tristate players, I think he’s the one in the best position to travel, earn notable results, and make a case for Top 100.

Agent (Capital Region)

In large contrast to the full hop-heavy and more defensive style that a lot of rising Fox players tend to adopt, Agent loves to press forward. I experienced this first-hand at Shine, and most of the Capital Region has experienced it at their tournaments. It may not be what you’d initially imagine for a player whose rise to the top of his power rankings has come through a gauntlet of floaty characters, Marth, and Pichu, and yet this is the truth.

https://twitter.com/mannese7300/status/1746698022698766437

At the end of last year, Agent took home some of his best wins yet, not only defeating K8A at the Nightclub finale, but also surprising the rest of New York City with a win over Fro116. He’s had up-and-down major performances, but this is to be expected for someone whose improvement has been fairly recent. With more experience on the big stage, as well as pursued out-of-region activity, which he’s shown to have, Agent seems like he’s ready for a breakout.

Fudge (Philadelphia)

My dear friend and biggest fan skaht once had the best way of describing what it’s like to play against Fudge. “The games seem close until you try to hit him, and then he hits some insane combo on you, and you lose by two stocks.” Trained from countless sets against Dawson, lynxwynx, Harry, and the rest of Philadelphia, Fudge is who I’d consider the region’s secret weapon. He’s not your average power-ranked Falco; he’s the real deal (not to be confused with TheRealThing).

Although he’s always been good in Philadelphia, Fudge has had notable results versus out-of-region talent. For example, he had a great Shine 2023, where he beat Top 100 ballot name bonfire10, and earlier in that year, Fudge took sets over Juicebox and Jude. While we’ve never really seen him defeat a top Fox, Fudge’s complete matchup spread is a great, if not unusual, asset for his future performances.

fknsilver (Georgia)

If you had to think of the best active solo Samus players in the world, the top three would be easy picks: Morsecode762, TheSWOOPER, and Wevans. After that, it’s a bit trickier, as you have many worthy selections. Mine in 2024, however, is Georgia’s fknsilver, a player who caught my attention during the pandemic and has seemed to take a big step forward in his gameplay.

What initially came to mind was his near-upset of n0ne at The Big House, but it’s important to remember that this heartbreaker followed up a win over Skerzo at the same event. He also ended the year with a win over MOF at DreamHack Atlanta. I think that fknsilver sometimes gets slept on because most of his activity is against his region, one composed of players who all seem to be especially good vs. Samus. Honestly, he’s solid whenever he plays out-of-region talent.

Kero (Alabama)

A fun storyline of the last couple of years has the growth of new-school Florida. And although he didn’t make the ballot in either season, talk to anyone from the state and they’ll tell you how Jacksonville’s best Captain Falcon (and now Alabama’s best Falcon) is supremely underrated. I actually learned about him when I saw that he was seeded ahead of Kalvar at a Texas tournament, and I didn’t recognize the tag. Maybe they were incorrect about him being underrated – but there’s a grain of truth to his name being relatively obscure while he simultaneously has great regional results.

In the last year, Kero has basically beaten everyone in Florida short of Krudo and Panda. He has two sets over MOF, a victory over prof, a win versus Genghis Juan, a win over Akir, and five sets on Wevans. For wins vs. people out of his region, Ober, The Leaf, and JCAM stand out as notable names. If the Alabama scene continues growing in prominence, as well as sending its players out of the region, Kero stocks would go up in value.

Stone (Texas)

A fellow grinder during the pandemic in a vaguely similar fashion to Agent, Stone has shown glimpses of promises over the last year and a half. In recent times, he finished No. 5 on the Texas Power Rankings, a pretty remarkable achievement considering the state’s wealth of talent across its subregions. His combined activity in his region and his willingness to travel make him a good pick for a 2024 breakout.

If anything, it looked like 2023 was going to be his year, as he started it with a win over Lowercase hero at Genesis. He’s also one of the few people in Texas to not get utterly curb stomped by SDJ’s Jigglypuff, and Stone later defeated Gahtzu, potentially a Top 50 to 60 player, at CEO. Natural steps forward in Stone’s gameplay could lead to him becoming a more consistent threat vs. Palpa, and with another big performance or two, he could make for a strong choice to hit the 2024 ballot.

Maher (Ontario)

There is no sect of Melee players who simultaneously run incredibly fun events while being more annoying about their own players than Canadian players. At the same time, it is just undeniable that Maher is very active and very good. Following some time atop the New Brunswick scene, he moved to Ontario some time ago and quickly made his way up to the middle of the region’s power rankings. I ended up picking him ahead of some of the other players around his level in Ontario because he has a passport and seems a bit more dedicated to the grind.

Maher doesn’t really have a huge win at a major, but he has many consistent victories over peers. At each of Riptide, Shine, and The Big House, he basically just lost to Top 100 players, inactive Top 100 players, or, in the case of Paladin, a “Edwin endorsed breakout player.”  This all came while consistently beating peers I would have considered around the same level as him: CakeAssault, Vorporal, plush, Poonslayer7, and Russell. Obviously, I don’t think Maher is Top 100 right now, but the way he trends versus comparable players makes me believe he’s due for a big step forward.

Graves (Washington)

Graves had been good for a while – and yet I don’t know what happened after Battle of BC 4, because ever since then, he’s turned into a complete monster within Washington. He consistently dominated his part of the state over the last year and half, but he’s also more than proven himself against Top 100 talent. Graves has been a menace for Stiv in particular, boasting a 7-1 record vs. the all-but-assured Top 100 Fox. He is also up, 5-4 in recent sets vs. Chango, whom we just saw had a big run to third place at Eggdog Scramble 2, as well as a Top 100-qualifying year. Combined with having outright won Ghost Town over FatGoku, Graves basically fits the criteria for “Top 100 in skill” by many metrics, even if he hasn’t had his national breakout yet

One of the reasons I’m so confident in Graves is the presence of Eggdog Esports in the Pacific Northwest. This is not to say that Graves will automatically be sponsored by an organization by virtue of being in the same broader region – but given Eggdog’s recent turn toward events, it’s not totally crazy to envision a future in which the team could run smaller-scale regional events and maybe even its much-anticipated Summit. In other words, the developing tournament ecosystem around the entire Pacific Northwest could bring Graves more chances to enter the spotlight.

$TYN (The Netherlands)

After Sweden, the Netherlands is arguably the most legendary European region. If you made a Dutch Hall of Fame for Melee, it would involve numerous people. With enough time, I think $TYN could make this list. Funnily enough, I was going through the Dutch PR out of curiosity, taking a good look at the internal head-to-heads of the players against each other, and I’m fairly surprised that $TYN was No. 2, even if the race for No. 1 was quite close.

Long has the Netherlands been a scene known for its immense amount of depth, but $TYN basically defeats everyone, including positive records over the likes of Aaron, Renzo, and skullbro. The only player who seems to give him anywhere close to consistent trouble is Nuckels, but that’s his only losing head-to-head within the Dutch PR. Boasting a 7-3 record vs. the UK’s max, I also think he’s shown the consistent ability to defeat Top 100 ballot names.

Goodie (Australia)

I once heard Goodie’s Fox described as Naruto. He charges up for a second at the other side of the stage before loudly declaring to his opponent that he is coming at them and then sprints full force in their direction before messing them up, like how Naruto does this in the anime, but through the power of friendship or whatever other bullshit. Granted, a ton of Australia just plays like this, but out of the post-Joshman era, Goodie stands out as the best player.

He’s lately won four tournaments in a row within the region, most notably winning a big event over McCloud, the country’s best Peach and the one whom I believe single handedly convinced Australia that rectangle controllers were the great Evil. But you might not know that Goodie’s traveled and did well for himself as well; he defeated max at Fete 3 and also left GOML with a quiet duo of victories over two regionally strong players in Rick (from Nova Scotia) and Sheep (from Michigan) as well. Maybe this is crazy of me considering how far away Goodie is from everyone else, but I don’t care. I think his Fox is really fun to watch, he has Phantom nearby, and if push came to shove, I’m sure he’d find a way to bring himself to a European event and maybe an American one in the summer for more strong performances and a chance at the Top 100.

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