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Tuesday Morning Marth: August 6

Edwin Budding
Published August 6, 2024

It took me the course of a few hours to write this column on Sunday night, only to wake up Monday morning with devastating news: that the reigning champion of Super Smash Con would not defend his title at Supernova 2024. Due to a bad ear infection that’s left him unable to travel, Zain will not be attending Supernova, meaning that the thousands of words I had dedicated to breaking down the event now had to change.

Ultimately though, we still have a fun event to cover, and although I had to rewrite everything all over again, I think we have a pretty interesting major coming up ahead. In today’s column, I’m going to break the remaining top seven seeds of Supernova 2024. I’ll be talking about where each of them are in their respective career, discuss their bracket paths (from R2 onwards), and then examine their chances to win the event. Funnily enough, while I always want Zain at events (and of course want him to get better), I do think his absence has made this tournament unexpectedly interesting in a few ways that impact these seven players.

Aklo

Before we get into the specifics of Aklo’s path, I want to talk about precedent for first-time major champions. Only 21 people have ever done it in the history of Melee, with the most recent newcomers being Jmook in 2023, aMSa in 2022, and Cody Schwab in 2021. I mention this because it will come up later for another player, but it’s worth noting now for Aklo, since it pertains to him. In fairness to Aklo, he’s also one of 48 people to ever finish top three at a major; with that in mind, his chance of going on to actually win one isn’t too bad, historically speaking.

As of when I’m writing this, he’s projected to play one of Sp1nda/8va into Jude/Seven in R2 pools. We did see Aklo fall down to the losers bracket at Spit Your Game to Fro116, so it’s not totally out of the question for someone like Jude to potentially steal a set, especially in best-of-three. But in my opinion, where the bracket immediately gets interesting is Top 48, where Aklo has a Fox ditto runback with either null or K8A, both of whom he solidly beat in their last matchup. It’s not necessarily a guaranteed win, as K8A does boast a victory over Chem from earlier this year and null did beat Zealot at Altitude Sickness. At the same time, an Aklo fresh off third place at Warehouse War 4 seems like a different beast. He should be favored against either opponent.

From there, Aklo’s path takes an interesting turn in Top 16. Based on the seeding holding mostly true, he’ll have to play one of Axe or Wally. He hasn’t faced Axe since a 3-1 Smash Summit 11 victory, which feels ages ago, and though Aklo historically defeats Wally, Wally’s been on a bit of an upswing at majors this year. I think Aklo’s favored vs. either opponent, but it’s closer to being a tossup than it is to be a surefire win.

Now, because Zain is not attending Supernova any more, Aklo will probably play the winner of Junebug, whom he beat at last year’s Super Smash Con (and Big House) and Zamu, whom he beat in a game five set at the Tipped Off pre-local. In similar fashion to the previous round, I think these matches range from tossups to being slightly in Aklo’s favor. After that, he’ll have to defeat, more than likely, two of Plup, Jmook, Mang0, and Cody – and that’s just to get to the winners side of grand finals. Assuming that happens, Aklo will still need to defend his spot.

Earlier this year, we saw what chaos could look like at GOML X. There, the No. 1 seed dropped a set to an unranked DK (and finished in 13th place), and by Top 4, we were wondering if Soonsay was actually going to win a major. In fact, it wasn’t that long ago in Super Smash Con history where another No. 1 seed fell early to a lower seed in best-of-three. But while these types of events tend to boost the chances of underdogs, and they still often need a little more luck for the dream run to happen. Aklo’s chances of winning Supernova improved upon Zain’s absence from the event, but it remains a longshot.

moky

There is one distinction with moky that he holds as somewhat of a back-hand compliment: he is the only Top 5 player in SSBMRank history who has never won a major. That’s not to say he hasn’t made progress in overcoming previous obstacles, as he did finally defeat Mang0 and Jmook this year; it’s merely to note the unusually thin line between moky’s undeniable greatness and the one achievement he’s been missing since his rise to the top.

This is actually a pretty hard bracket for him too. According to the seeding, he’ll begin by playing one of LuigigoShard or BINGHI before having to take on the winner of Maher or Tazio. I expect moky to win these sets without too much of an issue, but immediately following them, he’s projected to play the winner of KJH or ChuDat, which seems less like a lock. The former of which is a rising Top 50 dual spacies player who practices Falco-Fox nonstop; the latter is a horrifying Eldritchian being who can just randomly show up and defeat top talent no matter what year it is. Again; I don’t think moky will necessarily lose these sets either, but if you’re moky, wouldn’t you rather play null or K8A in this spot than KJH or ChuDat?

From that point onward, he’s projected to play the winner of Magi vs. Drephen. If he wins that, then he’ll most likely have to play one of Mang0 or Krudo before then having to defeat two of Cody/Hungrybox/Plup, in all likelihood, to make it to grands. These are not matchups that moky’s likely to lose in, but once again, compare it to another player’s bracket. For any Top 10 Fox player, Magi may as well be a coin flip given her long history of dismantling top spacies.

Close your eyes and imagine a moky major victory. It’s not unlikely at all because he’s a fantastic player. It does, however, probably look way different than this bracket, even if Zain’s DQ is an undeniable boost to his chances of winning. I’m partially smoking crack when I say that moky has a nonzero chance of losing to fitzy, but I’m dead serious when I say that ChuDat or KJH early is one of the hardest draws around that time in the bracket that anyone I’m writing about could have. We know moky can defeat the best of the best, and it helps that Zain’s not here; it’s just a matter of getting there.

Jmook

I’ve gone on record multiple times talking about Jmook’s sudden turn from No. 1 contender to volatile and frequent heartbreaker. At this point, it’s undeniable that Jmook isn’t a leading contender to win majors anymore. Importantly, this is not me saying that it’s impossible or that he won’t ever do it again, but his relative lack of consistency against the field make him less reliable of a pick than he was in the past.

With respect to both these players, who I think are strong regional talents, I don’t think Jmook is losing to one of BS or Cyrain. Assuming he defeats them though, as projected, I believe Jmook should be watching the matchup between Reeve and Frostbyte with a very close eye. If Reeve wins, I think Jmook’s experience in the Marth matchup will solidly carry over; if Frostbyte wins, however, Jmook could be in deep trouble. In addition to Jmook’s own struggles with the Ice Climbers in the past, a best-of-three at Super Smash Con is not exactly where you want to be playing against the Ice Climbers. While I wouldn’t confidently claim that Frostbyte, a longtime regional boss of MD/VA, will defeat Jmook, a Melee Hall of Famer, I honestly would not be surprised if it happened.

If Jmook can get to Top 48 though, he’ll see more familiar faces. The first matchup will likely be between one of Kevin Maples, whom Jmook handily squashed at Warehouse War, or Juicebox, who, to his credit, defeated Shroomed and Spark at Genesis this year. It’s not entirely out of the question that they could surprise Jmook, but I honestly believe they’re less scary than Frostbyte, as wild as that sounds. Regardless, assuming that Jmook wins, he’ll have the winner of Joshman and ckyulmiqnudaetr (whom I will, from here on out, refer to as Quang). Over the course of this year, Josh has slowly become a consistent rival for Jmook, having beaten him a couple times, so a matchup between the two of them could be a tossup; on the other hand, if Jmook plays Quang, the ten-stock beatdown he gave him at Star League does not seem to indicate that Quang is likely to win. After that, if Jmook wins, he’ll have the winner of Plup and Spark, either which feel like coin flip matchups (maybe Jmook mildly favored vs. Spark if I had to guess), and if he wins that set, he’ll be in the winner’s side of the top eight, with, in all likelihood, competitive matchups against any combination of Aklo, Cody, and Mang0 (or whomever else is there).

This bracket makes me think of moky’s bracket, but with a lot more randomness. The difference between playing Reeve or Frostbyte could drastically impact Jmook’s chances of winning this tournament. Frankly, the same could be said for the difference between playing Joshman or Quang. Like the other people I talked about above, Jmook needs a lot to go right for him to win this event. Even without Zain, here are so many potential landmines on the way to top eight. It may sound wild to say this, but Zain’s absence might actually hurt Jmook. Many players who benefit from Zain not being there happen to be ones who have given Jmook the most trouble.

Hungrybox

We’ve finally reached the moment of truth, folks: the point where Hungrybox finally wins a major at the peak of the Detox. Or at least that’s what he wants to happen; apparently, there’s a new Detox he’s doing? I don’t know. All I can say is that Hungrybox has clearly been on the travel and Melee grind, and he also happens to be in the biggest major slump of his career since the stretch between Apex 2010 and Paragon Orlando 2015.

The nice thing for Hungrybox, however, is that he apparently has friends in very high places, because this bracket has been gifted to him on a pillow. Before Top 48, he will have to play the winner of RanD or Seke before then playing one of YungWaff or fitzy. While fitzy is a great rising star of New York City, as well as one who recently had a big Jigglypuff win of her own over Komodo at Tipped Off 15, Hungrybox is a totally different beast to take on in-person. If it were an online tournament, I think she’d have a good shot at shocking him. On a similar note, maybe YungWaff could possibly upset Hungrybox under different conditions: one where Supernova head Melee TO The Cheat mandates that both players must self-commentate.

Either way, if Hungrybox wins, he will have one of 404Cray or Balloon Day before playing KoDoRiN or Sirmeris to get to the winners quarterfinals. Although we technically have seen KoDoRiN defeat Hungrybox in the last two years, and Balloon Day’s big come up did involve a very funny victory over Hungrybox online, I have little reason to think Hungrybox in 2024 will lose to either of those players or the alternatives. The closest thing we have to Hungrybox suffering a significant upset this year are three almosts in JChu at CEO 2024, KJH at Warehouse War 4, and mgmg at GOML X. It’s probably a tiny bit more likely than you might initially imagine, but compared to the paths of moky or Aklo or Jmook, this is undeniably way easier.

The issue is staying in the Top 12 itself. Even accounting for the Zain DQ, all Hungrybox’s potential opponents have either beaten him this year or taken a set from him over the last two years. Obviously, he’s up 2-0 in the 2024 count vs. Cody, whom he’s projected to play, but will that really hold against someone who’s historically soft countered him? If he plays Panda instead, it’s not like Panda is a free win either. That’s only to get to top eight too, where either potential matchup of Mang0 or moky would put Hungrybox against someone up on him for this year. Plup might be his best bet, and he’s quietly smacked around Hungrybox for most of their post-pandemic meetups.

Looking at how Hungrybox performs, how he’s trending, and this specific bracket, it feels like he doesn’t have a significant problem in getting to the last phase of the bracket. He does have pretty real struggles against the top echelon though. Of the people in that group, the one positive head-to-head came at literally one tournament this year. I’ve put him above Aklo, moky, and Jmook, because I think his bracket is significantly easier, but his long-term trends against the top brass are killing his ability to capitalize off his relatively straightforward path.

Plup

It might be a fool’s errand to predict how a guy with literally one attended tournament in 2024 will perform at his second attended tournament. But it’s also Plup. We just saw him trounce multiple Top 25 players and take sets from fellow Top 5 players as well. It’s worth thinking about his own chances of winning a major here, and there’s historic stakes too. If Plup wins Supernova, he will have five major wins for his career and separate himself from PC Chris and Azen, whom he’s tied with for tenth most major wins ever (the ninth being PPMD with seven).

As it stands right now, Plup will have the winner of Vish vs. Watching Time, egg vs. Amida, and Khryke vs. DrLobster to get to Top 24. At the risk of having egg on my face (pun unintended) afterward, I think any of these otherwise strong to great players need something extraordinary to happen in order for them to advance beyond Plup. It could be a DQ or maybe Plup suddenly deciding to play only Samus, Luigi or some other stupid character for the weekend. Honestly though, the latter possibility might still end up in Plup winning. In general, Plup upsets are even rarer than his appearances at events. Since the end of the pandemic, the closest cases he’s had to real shocker losses are either Ginger, basically a Top 25 player, eliminating him from Genesis 8 or Azel coming painfully short of defeating Plup at The Big House 11. Khryke is unsurprisingly the best bet because of the Ice Climbers factoring into the matchup, but I also think that getting into a counterpick war with Plup may not be the best idea. An upset over Plup will probably involve Khryke sticking to one character (my guess is Ice Climbers) throughout the set. But who knows? It would be a pretty big shock, and yet at the same time, it wouldn’t be the most crazy outcome to ever happen.

Then, before the top eight, Plup is set to play one of Spark or Lucky, and then one of Jmook or Joshman. Spark and Plup haven’t played since their down-to-the-wire set at MAJOR UPSET, and in 2024, Spark’s taken a huge step forward in his results, having made top four at a major this year. I would consider Plup a decent, but not insurmountable favorite vs. Spark, while nothing I’ve seen from Lucky, as strong as his year’s been, seems to indicate that he’s anything more than a dark horse vs. Plup. Jmook or Joshman, however, both feel like relative coin flips. Though Plup won both of his previous respective sets vs. either of the two, Jmook recently came a heartbreaking game short of defeating Cody (a better Fox) twice in a row, while Plup hasn’t played the new and improved version of Joshman, a far different player than the one he 3-1’d at Scuffed World Tour. Of course, you have the top eight itself, which has any assortment of Aklo, Cody, and Mang0, judging by the seeding.

Of that group, Cody’s name is obviously the scariest one. In fact, it may honestly shock you how badly Cody has had Plup’s number. Since Smash Summit 11, Cody has won 10 sets in a row vs. plup, and he happens to beat him when it’s least convenient, with several of them coming in grand finals. If Cody did not exist, it’s possible Plup might have won multiple majors by now. Against everyone else in that group, Plup seems like a coin flip (Mang0) or mildly favored (Aklo). With one literal 0-10 matchup (by set count) though, it’s safe to guess Plup would need to dodge it to win Supernova.

Cody Schwab

Cody’s not that far behind in the No. 1 race. All it would take is another major win for him to edge closer to Zain, and maybe even surpass him with a dominant performance. Though it may seem small, and it certainly was by the margins, Cody’s win at Warehouse War 4 also padded his resume for this year with more sets over Jmook. A great victory at Supernova could be what it takes for Cody to position himself well for the stacked fall season. Will it happen though?

R2 Pools doesn’t start off too scary for Cody. He eats Marth for breakfast, so, respectfully, I don’t think the winner of tiebex/JHTL would be an obstacle. I feel similarly about Cody then having to beat one of Kwyet or Daniel; he just doesn’t really lose to Sheiks if they’re not Jmook, and he straight up seems indestructible vs. Yoshi. But after that, Cody has a Fox ditto with Preeminent or a set against mvlvchi’s Peach, with mvlvchi having home court advantage. Of these players, I could see mvvlchi giving Cody a scare. After all, we just saw Wally come an edgeguard close to sending Cody home from GOML. In general though, I think Cody should probably beat either of these players.

From that point onward, he’ll have one of Panda or Chem in a Fox ditto. Now, it’s tempting to state that Cody’s recent dropped sets to Zamu and Soonsay make him vulnerable in this matchup, but he’s overwhelmingly been quite dominant. In 2024, vs. Leffen, moky, Soonsay, Aklo, Joshman,  Zamu, Panda, Chem, and Lucky (Top 5 to 25 Fox players), he’s 14-2. It doesn’t get much better than that. While not impossible to imagine Cody dropping a set to one of these players, it’s actually not that likely. He’d probably rather play a Fox here than take on someone like Magi or Junebug or Trif (just as an example of someone who’s not here but could be scary) at this point of the bracket.

So far, so good, right? Well, then we get into the Top 12, where we have a lot of conflicting information about Cody’s recent head-to-heads and what we’ve come to expect from him over the last 12 months. For example, it seems unreasonable to say he’s disfavored against Hungrybox because of one tournament, but clearly it’s not as much of a guarantee as we might have thought in 2023. Similarly, even if he doesn’t play Hungrybox, KoDoRiN’s someone we’ve seen give Cody issues or take him close. After either of those two players, there’s any combination of Mang0 or moky, who both range from disfavorable opponents to coin flips. Based on the current bracket though, if Cody gets by these guys, he’ll have super favorable matchups vs. either of Plup or Aklo. My guess is that Cody gets to winner’s semifinals, and then from that point, we’ll know immediately if he’s winning the tournament or not. However, if you’ve noticed, he’s not my pick.

Mang0

Mang0 has a funny relationship with the Supernova series. As much as he brands himself as Mr. Big House, the truth is he also boasts the most number of wins for this event as well, having won Super Smash Cons in 2016, 2017, and 2022 as well. I think it’s easy to forget this because he’s also had a few stinkers at this series too. Who can forget his Flipsy loss in 2018, when Zain and aMSa kicked his ass in 2019, or when he was in his Doc Lee phase vs. Hungrybox last year? Regardless, this is a great chance for Mang0 to get back in the No. 1 race and start off the back end of the year with a consecutive win to follow his Tipped Off victory.

His bracket is very strange at this particular iteration of Supernova. There is simply no statistical evidence for me to see a path of Dimension/Cubs, Kata/OG Kid, n0ne/Kalvar, and Krudo/Bbatts as horrifying for Mang0. In my mind though, when I see this bracket, I think about the near-misses against Egg$, Atomsk, and even Kalvar himself. Does the Mang0 that farms Trif show up here, or does the Mang0 that mailed it in vs. Sirmeris at Full Bloom show up? My guess is that the former shows up, but you never really know until the day of the tournament.

Here’s the catch: I this is a terrifying path for Mang0. But it’s not terrifying because he can’t win; it’s terrifying because he’s favored in every projected set. In Top 12, he’s seeded to have a rematch with moky, whom he lost to this year but has historically owned. If it’s not moky, then it’s Magi, his training partner. Assuming he wins that, he’ll then likely have a showdown with either Cody or Hungrybox, both of whom he’s recently held the edge against. For the first time since 2022, we have an event that’s genuinely Mang0’s to lose.

Can Mang0 win as the favorite? Are we about to see a back-to-back Mang0 win for the first time in a couple years, and, ergo, see Mang0 return to being a number one contender? Or is this the moment where he gets hit with a harsh reality check? The numbers seem to back him up, and as such, I’m picking Mang0 to win Supernova 2024.

A Quick Note

Over the next two weeks, I will be on vacation. If you’re curious as to where I will be, I will be in Africa (not doxing myself any further) on a safari. In that time, while I turn into Lex van den Berghe, dear friend and Melee Stats favorite Grab will be taking over my column. Hopefully a lion does not eat me. See you all in a couple of weeks – unless a lion does eat me, in which case, it was nice knowing everyone. Here’s to my time off.

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