Skip to content

Monday Morning Marth: September 30

Edwin Budding
Published September 30, 2024

This upcoming weekend is a very special one for me and the rest of New England. In less than a week, we’re about to see a spiritual successor to the Shine series in Wavelength 2024. Although it’s not happening within Boston itself, it’s not that far away in Westford. Best of all, it’s a bonafide major, with Zain, Mang0, Jmook, Hungrybox, and moky – five Top 10 players – attending.

Like I’ve done in the past, I’m going to pick out players here that I find most compelling to follow for this tournament. I’ll start off by bringing up the headliner regional talent to look out for within New England. After that, I’ll mention potential breakout picks outside of the top sixteen seeds, and then mention a small subgroup of those players to discuss as well. Finally, I’ll dive into the six players with nonzero chances of winning the tournament, and obviously make my final prediction for Wavelength 2024 champion.

Before I get into it: for those of you looking for specific bracket matches to watch out for, I’m not going to be doing that. Instead, I want to shout out stocmoney: someone whom I trust with my life to adequately dive into New England and preview all the potential matches. As a longtime tournament organizer and player from this region, he has all the insights on people to look out for, and I’ve especially enjoyed his excellent new series previewing tournaments. I can’t recommend his work enough and strongly suggest you follow him if you want insight into the final bracket.

Who are New England’s killers?

I’ll start with Trail, a player who might genuinely have more time in the scene than any other active top player. Twenty years ago, he got into Melee, ten years ago, he made the Top 100, and today he’s a legend of New England, as well as one of its most lovable personalities. A few months ago, he beat essy in a run to top eight at Critical Mass. On a similar note, I would look out for Bekvin, another Ice Climbers player who’s been consistently Top 5 in New England, and yet due to a series of unfortunate major brackets featuring Peach or other pesky ICs-slaying opponents, hasn’t had his breakout major yet. Maybe it happens here.

Another fun duo to look out for is Kalvar and bonfire10, both New Hampshire players who are fresh off an up-and-down SoCal trip over Star League weekend. In bonfire’s case, she also had a huge run to 13th place at Riptide, where she beat Slowking and Free Palestine. Meanwhile Kalvar boasts a great performance earlier in the year at Critical Mass, where he double eliminated Chem. Both are fairly volatile players, either capable of scaring Top 25 to 50 talent or randomly drowning in pools.

My last pick for breakout New England player: Ember, from New Hampshire, as my final choice for a potential breakout. I genuinely think she’s the player whose national stock could rise the most from more experience against out-of-region talent. As a matter of fact, Ember’s positive vs. bonfire in sets for the most recent ranking season (5-3), and has five wins over Kalvar in that same period of time. Although she recently had an uncharacteristic upset at Mass Madness 48, and has lost her only set against Bekvin over the last six months, it’s generally rare to see Ember lose to someone who isn’t Kalvar or bonfire. This makes her a safe pick to make Top 64, and she seems as likely to make a huge upset as any other New England player.

I know I said Ember was my last pick, but I lied. Forgive me. My real last pick is dear friend Electroman, a rising Fox player from Massachusetts. His annual resume has been pretty good so far, with two sets over bonfire10 and two sets over Kalvar, as well as out-of-region wins vs. Juicebox and Walmart Shoes. Right now, I don’t think he would make the ballot for Top 100, but he’s not that far away, and he’ll be attending a good number of tournaments over the rest of the year. I personally think he could sneak in with another big win or two.

Potential breakouts

When you think of top Philadelphia Melee talent, it’s usually some combination of SluG, Raz, Dawson, and Chem (if you count him). However, two players have gone relatively under the radar in their successes: firstly Fudge, a Falco whom I once deemed “Philadelphia’s secret weapon,” and then Nanami, Philadelphia’s actual secret weapon. Since I wrote that about Fudge, he went on to defeat Skerzo at Riptide en route to 17th place, and he also nabbed wins over Artan and bambi at Tipped Off, showcasing an ability to perform well out of region. Nanami, however, is a bit more confusing. She basically never travels outside of Philadelphia and plays each of Fox, Jigglypuff, Sheik, and Marth at a high level, sometimes in the same set – like a Philadelphia version of essy. It’s also worth noting that she’s one of the few people in her region to ever straight up win a local tournament over Raz and Dawson. She beat 404Cray earlier this year too.

On a similar note come a fair of rising star Fox players that have performed well in somewhat obscure regions: firstly Agent, the Capital Region’s dominant overlord, and Paladin, a rising Southeast Fox player. Both were my choices for breakout players of this year, and in different ways, each has seen quietly good results. In Paladin’s case, he has wins vs. each of Beezy, Kalvar, and Preeminent, while Agent has beaten Inky, POG Epic Gamer, Dawson, and Epoodle. Though neither are necessarily locks for Top 100, they’ve each entered territory for ballot consideration.

The last two players I’ll bring up in this segment are two Sheik players that seem like safe locks for Top 100. The first one is Zanya. Hailing from upstate New York, she’s taken her results to the next level in 2024, nabbing wins over Franz, KoopaTroopa895, Maelstrom, Ballon Day, and, most notably, Junebug. In fact, she actually outright won Allston Allstars II in New England earlier over Kalvar and bonfire. Not to mention, she boasts approximately 42069 sets over BING, the Cody Schwab-slayer.

After her, and to conclude this segment, comes the proto-Zanya of sorts in Melee Arcadian champion JSalt. Longtime readers of this column know there’s few things quite as charming to me as someone who deliberately prioritizes smacking down worse players. But JSalt’s 2024 has come with quite a few highs, like sets over Bbatts, KJH, and Wally. The only active player in Louisiana that’s consistently handled him is rabit!, who isn’t attending this tourney. Historically speaking, JSalt overwhelmingly owns anyone who isn’t in consideration for Top 100. Another big win would cement the fact that he can punch above his weight class too.

Notable Top 16 seeds

Of all the juicy Top 16 players, n0ne is the one that intrigues me the most. It’s funny – his victory over Wizzrobe is, by respective 2024 results, one of the most insane upsets of the year. Except it’s not actually crazy because anyone with two brain cells knows that n0ne’s results are not always indicative of his real skill. I mention it because n0ne failed to make the summer Top 50, and while it was justified by results, anyone who knows ball understands that he’s clearly way better than that. It might not be the same n0ne that finished in fourth place at Genesis, but sleeping on him would be a big mistake.

I’m similarly interested in Khryke, the anti-n0ne. With all due respect to him, someone whom I personally like and is a longtime Patron of Melee Stats, pretty much nobody ever talks about him. And yet as a perennial Top 50 player, it’s never surprising whenever he has an objectively impressive accomplishment. Winning a 100+ person event over Kevin Maples, eliminating Lucky twice, and beating Panda? Yep, sounds about right – no need to discuss it further. Khryke’s going to do something like beat Mang0 here and nobody will bat an eyelash. Okay; I’m sure some people will, but you get the point.

I already talked about Wally earlier this month, so I won’t repeat myself on the topic of fastest improvers in Melee history. But I would also like to remind everyone here that I similarly called SFOP as a player with immense potential. Even if it was a long time ago, and although he hasn’t been very active this year, I am nonetheless pretty excited to see how he performs here. With the right bracket – likely one of fast-fallers, if his recent win over Salt is any indication – I could see him suddenly clawing his way to another major top eight. Also, SFOP technically has a win over Mang0, albeit at a Star League tournament, where Mang0’s results aren’t anywhere close to indicative of how he’d play at a major.

Two underdogs

Who wins a major first: Aklo or moky? Obviously without knowing the exact bracket each, I can’t exactly answer this question confidently. However it’s interesting to examine their wildly different trajectories. Both are now in a similar category of being colossal underdogs to win majors.

In moky’s case, he entered the year all but assured to be the next person to enter the pantheon of major champions. Better yet, he made progress in defeating two of his three biggest demons in Jmook and Mang0, and he even defeated Jmook a second time at Collision. Since that strong start though, he’s suffered a dip in performances, dropping sets to Junebug, ckyulmiqnudaetr, Magi, and MOF at his last three big events. In that same stretch, he also ended Hungrybox’s top eight streak, so it wasn’t all bad, but moky has fallen to Earth a little bit.

Meanwhile, Aklo initially took a step back in his performances, even falling out of the Top 10 in the summer rankings. But since his ho-hum Tipped Off, Aklo’s gone on to defeat Jmook twice, as well as break a long losing streak to Hungrybox, and defeat moky. While his Supernova performance was a mixed bag, it’d be hard to deny that Aklo stock has overall increased over the last three months. Even his down-to-the-wire heartbreakers against Zain and Cody at Riptide are relatively promising signs when you fully consider how badly those two have previously trounced him.

Personally, I’m not convinced this is the event for either player to break through. The fact that aMSa isn’t here basically eliminates the chance that one of them could dodge Zain. Though it’s not impossible for either to defeat him, the odds are obviously not great. If I had to pick one of them to break through at this specific event, it’s Aklo, by a slim margin because he’s trending a bit more consistently vs. the field. However, at another tournament with Cody or aMSa, which would be the case for larger events, it would probably still be moky overall.

The two dark horses

Hungrybox and Mang0 have a long way to go for winning this event. Although they’ve had a competitive rivalry with each other, both have been smacked down by Zain enough times (a combined 1-13 over the last twelve months) to where any chance of them winning this tournament will take a nosedive by the numbers. At the same time, we did see Mang0 literally win a major over Zain four months ago. Clearly, it’s not impossible for him to do it again. Hungrybox could snap his losing streak in similar fashion.

Cody’s absence from this tournament (as well as other tournaments in the future) is really going to force Mang0 to adjust his matchup spread. I still expect him to win far more often than not against Top 25 fast-fallers, and it’s promising that his consistency vs. the field has been excellent since Full Bloom. But in terms of his opposition, he’s really got a tough trio here in Zain, Hungrybox, and Jmook: a group of opponents he’s a combined 4-12 against in the last twelve months. Granted, most of the negative record comes against Zain (1-8), whom he beat four months ago. It’s possible that this is trending in a better direction. Remember though: I’m bringing it up as a point of comparison to Cody. Relatively speaking, Mang0 vs. Zain may as well be the coughing baby vs. a tactical nuke meme, but in Melee.

At least Mang0 has a reliable top-echelon matchup. Hungrybox’s closest thing to that is Mang0 himself, whom he’s gone back and forth with (2-2) over the last year. In fact, his former punching bag in Jmook has seemingly turned the corner on Hungrybox, winning their last three sets. Meanwhile, Hungrybox has also struggled with moky (1-2), and obviously the recent head-to-head with Zain (0-42069) speaks for itself. As the apparent Hungrybox doubter-in-chief, I have to admit I’m impressed by his dedication to returning to major contention and I would genuinely like to see him finally overcome Zain. With that said, I need to see it to believe it.

Isn’t it crazy that two of the remaining Five Gods have been relegated to dark horses for major contention? A small part of me wishes for another Mang0-Hungrybox grand finals: a return to the good old days. Actually, I just remembered all the blowouts where Mang0 ran at the ledge 12 times. Never mind. Let’s not do that.

The biggest challenger

In previous columns, I’ve been fairly harsh on Jmook. His struggles with Top 25 Fox players, Cody, Zain, and apparently Samus have all but eroded the idea that he’s a leading major contender. To put it bluntly, Jmook’s 2023 ascent looks like he caught lightning in a bottle. Keeping that in mind though, Jmook’s performance at the Star League Championships was the exact type of event I wanted to see from him to restore my faith. No, it wasn’t perfect, as his losses to Magi and Fiction showed, but beating a former demon in aMSa twice, along with a slew of other Top 25ish players, was a great sign.

It helps that Jmook’s done relatively well vs. this field of competitors. Although his 16-14 record vs. the top eight seeds over the last 12 months seems to indicate some level of shakiness, the details tell a bit more of a nuanced story. The only competitors here that he’s negative against are Zain (2-5) and Joshman (2-3). Otherwise he’s up vs. each of Mang0 (2-1), Hungrybox (2-0), Aklo (3-2), moky (3-2), and Spark (3-1). None of these matchups are necessarily locks, but cumulatively, it’s fair to consider this field a favorable one. The fact that Jmook can actually challenge Zain gives him the biggest advantage over everyone. Actually, technically, no. Not everyone.

My pick

What better way is there to dodge Zain than being literally Zain yourself? Against the entire top eight seeds, he is a combined 28-3 in the last 12 months, with one loss to Mang0 (8-1) and two losses to Jmook (5-2) as his only blemishes. Versus players from seeds 9 to 32, he’s undefeated over the last twelve months. His last real loss to any of them overall came to Wally in a best-of-three that happened two years ago. Maybe you could consider his show match against n0ne at The Off-Season 2 as a data point, but it’s not a good one given how there were no real competitive stakes. Even when thinking of likely winners quarters opponents, it would be a stretch to predict a Zain loss to the Joshmans, Sparks, and Krudos of the world.

I’m admittedly playing into being an asshole here, but Wavelength looks like a nice serving of Top 10 players Zain typically turns into mincemeat, presented to him on a silver platter. It’s as if a bunch of people decided, “we need to give Zain a free major.” Even if Jmook takes a set – we all know Zain’s going to win through the losers bracket anyway.

EDIT: If Zain loses this event to any of Mang0, Hungrybox, Jmook, Aklo, or moky, I give all of you permission to make fun of me. I am literally rooting for any of these players as underdogs to stop him and turn me into a corncob.

Not to take credit away from Zain, but a Wavelength win would feel anticlimactic. With two other majors and an invitational to close out the year for big events, winning Wavelength would effectively lock up No. 1. Zain would have a two-major lead over Cody, whose future currently seems limited, and an insurmountable three-major lead over Mang0, who is barely in the discussion right now. At the same time, can someone really be number one when they’re literally winless against a peer? Does the best player in the world happen to be the luckiest one?

The truth: sometimes that’s how it is. Armada won No. 1 in a year where Mang0 farmed him with Marth (okay, it was really only one tournament where this was the case; I’m being slightly hyperbolic). In the year before that, his toughest continental rival was banned from entering the United States before the last few majors of the year. Conversely, Hungrybox’s reign coincided with Armada’s retirement and two of his toughest opponents experimenting with Ultimate. It happens – there are always asterisks and downsides to people’s dominance. Zain can be an exceptional competitor, a worthy number one, and a lucky player at the same time.

Anyway, Zain’s my pick to win Wavelength 2024. Unlike Riptide, where Medz and MOF came pretty close to ruining his run, this one is going to be an ugly, conclusive end to the No. 1 race.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Discover more from Melee Stats

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading