It’s now been about two weeks since moky won Don’t Park on the Grass, and I haven’t recovered from that event yet (nor have I recovered from this cold I’ve been dealing with since). In all fairness though, the top four was practically unprecedented in Melee history. You’ll have to excuse me for not getting over what’s been an unusually exciting time to be following and attending big tournaments.
Top level Melee did not look like this for the last eighteen months. Zain and Cody Schwab were the ones consistently winning majors, with one hot stretch from Mang0 last summer, if you could call a couple major tournaments a stretch. All in all, it seems like we’re on the verge of entering new territory as fans. The prospect of welcoming newcomers to the pantheon of major champions seems likelier than ever before.
In this column, I’m going to first break down each of our previous first-time winners, briefly recapping their victories and discussing the unusual factors that led to them. After that, I’m going to examine the majors of 2024 and see if there are any identifiable trends when it comes to matchups and the players you typically need to beat in order to win a major. Lastly, I will make my five picks for who could potentially be the next moky the end of 2025.
NOTE: For the purpose of today’s column, I’m excluding online. It’s just too different from offline to make for a clean comparison. If you don’t like it, too bad. Write your own column.
Recent history of first-time winners
Remember when Cody Schwab was a distant No. 3 from Zain and Mang0? His first major win came without those two present at the original Riptide. There, he beat Krudo, Hungrybox, and Plup twice to take home the gold at the event. Contextually, this major was nowhere near as prestigious as Cody’s upcoming Summit victories, and yet it still marks a big step forward in his career. In 2025 terms, the rough equivalent would be winning a big tournament without Zain or Cody in attendance, but enough of everyone else to be considered a major.
A little over a year after Cody made history aMSa shocked the world at The Big House 10. Longtime readers forever know this particular event as part of my legacy of sorts. In my defense, this victory needed quite a few coin flips to go aMSa’s way. Plup, arguably his toughest opponent, DQ’d. Soonsay upset Leffen and made it all the way to winners semifinals to face aMSa. Crazier yet, Mang0 defeated Zain, which, as unbelievable as it seems today, was considered fortunate for aMSa’s chances back then. At the same time, aMSa absolutely earned his victory, defeating each of KoDoRiN, Hungrybox, Soonsay, and Mang0 (twice).
Besides, he’s far from the only one to make history in large part due to bracket luck. Jmook technically benefited from several shenanigans in his Genesis 9 breakout. While beating n0ne, Zain, moky, and Cody is nothing to scoff at, Mang0 almost certainly would have been a much more difficult opponent than n0ne. Had Mang0 not decided to stubbornly play secondaries to protest the rankings, it’s possible Jmook would have beaten him anyway, but this undeniably benefit Jmook. It’s not the biggest stroke of luck either – Jmook got to dodge both of aMSa and Hungrybox, both his toughest opponents around that time, because they had been upset earlier in the bracket.
Lastly, we get to our most recent winner in moky at DPOTG. I don’t want to discredit his win in such little time since the event. It’s amazing that he was able to clutch out game fives over Trif, Cody, and Hungrybox, let alone defeat a Zain-slaying Aklo twice. But is it any coincidence that Zain was not in his bracket path, and that moky was in a position to benefit from it? Probably not, and that’s okay. It’s part of competing, and it doesn’t have to detract from moky’s historic achievement.
Although it’s difficult to translate results from four different years, there’s a few recurring themes. First, at most majors, they have to win three sets in four attempts, maximum, against the Top 10. Before that, they need to get by a field of at least two Top 25 and Top 50 players combined. But on the whole, having a little bit of luck also helps, whether it’s the absence of their toughest demons at the event itself or the joy of watching those same players lose on the other side of the bracket.
What does it take to win a major today?
Not every top level matchup is equally valuable in terms of affecting someone’s chances of winning a major. It may sound strange; what I’m describing here is very different from just being “good.” The long story short: to win a major, there are certain players or characters that you’re most likely to run into. In order to win a major for the first time, you must demonstrate that you can overcome “enough” of them in a double elimination bracket.
The most obvious example is the ability to defeat Zain. While our last major winner ended up not needing to do that, it doesn’t change the reality that Zain has won six majors this year. Two of them that he didn’t win were won by someone who beat him (Mang0 and Cody) to win. Champions like moky should be treated as exceptions to the rule, even if we now have proof that beating Zain isn’t a 100 percent prerequisite.
Curiously, after Zain, Hungrybox comes up as another valuable matchup. Of the twelve 2024 majors that have happened, seven of them have been won by people who have beaten Hungrybox. It speaks volumes to Hungrybox’s legacy that he continues to carry so much weight in determining who can win a major, but it must also be infuriating for him. That game five vs. moky at DPOTG is going to haunt him; in all likelihood, that was Hungrybox’s best chance this year.
The last essential matchup is really obvious: Fox. In addition to seven major winners this year being Cody himself or someone who beat Cody (Zain, Mang0, and moky), each of Joshman and Soonsay have been in the eventual winner’s major path thrice. Similarly, there’s been seven times this year in which the eventual winner of a major has beaten Aklo. Meanwhile, in addition to moky’s own victory, he’s appeared two other times in the winner’s path. If you can’t consistently beat Fox, you can’t win a major. Keeping that in mind, let’s jump right into my picks for potential 2025 major underdogs; we’ll begin with a Fox.
Aklo
Aklo stock is higher than ever before. A large part of it has to do with Aklo trending quite highly against two of the people you typically need to defeat in order to win majors: Zain and Hungrybox. At the very least, there’s good reason to believe that these rivalries are currently trending closer to coin flip territory than they are to blowout territory. With additionally improved consistency versus the field, Aklo has definitely earned his spot as the new kid on the block. In addition to also having turned the corner on Jmook, Aklo will end the year with a whopping 12 attended majors. He very well might enter the pantheon of major champions via sheer effort.
There is one matchup he’s consistently performed subpar in: the Fox ditto. Although he doesn’t necessarily lose the matchup every time, Aklo remains a combined 3-11 against the group of Cody, Joshman, Soonsay, and moky in 2024. The data is admittedly skewed by his poor 0-5 showing against Cody, but those losses still exist, as does Aklo’s consistent struggles with Chem. The good news for Aklo fans is that he finally snapped a long losing streak to Joshman at DPOTG. The bad news is that moky beat him twice at the same event, and the numbers show moky to be Aklo’s best draw of the Fox players. You can’t have your best draw in the most important character matchup be a coin flip at best.
One X-factor to consider is the impact of Mang0’s attendance on Aklo’s chances. With Mang0 all but checked out of seriously competing in the short-term, you might think this would naturally benefit Aklo, who has never beaten him. However, I’m not sure it’s that simple. In practice though, this could just as easily benefit every Top 25 Fox. Given what we know about Aklo’s results, this could very well hurt Aklo. Personally, I’m not quite sure which way I’d lean toward. Aklo seems fundamentally different from other Fox players in that he’s had multiple close calls with Mang0 rather than beatdown losses. In that sense, he might actually prefer Mang0 be around.
Joshman
I’ve previously talked about Josh as someone with both multi-main potential and major-winning potential. He still has ways to go in breaking into the top echelon, but he looks much closer today than he was even when I spoke glowingly of him Many signs of a future champion are there: multiple wins over Aklo, a rivalry that’s lately been in his favor against Jmook, and holding off a Clutchbox appearance at DPOTG, beating him for the first time. It helps too that Joshman is extremely consistent; while he does have stray losses here and there against the field, he’s usually hovered around making major top eights, and he’s performed quite strongly at tournaments underneath majors, as his victory at The Function 4 and success at SoCal regionals shows.
The obvious roadblock here is Zain, which speaks to itself. Furthermore, while the eye test certainly supports Josh’s prowess in the ditto, he’s not invincible in it. For big wins in the matchup, he only has three vs. Aklo and one against Soonsay this year, with no recent successes versus either of Cody or moky. If anything, the most noteworthy Fox ditto Josh had before DPOTG was a loss to Lucky. Out of the four ‘strengths’ needed to win a major (beating Zain, beating Hungrybox, doing well in the Fox ditto, and beating the field), Josh’s biggest ones have typically helped him get to the final stage of bracket (top eight), but he’s only lately shown any potential of being able to close it out against the best of the best.
I do wonder about his long-term ability to compete within North America as well. Although he’s been fairly present at majors since his move to SoCal, I still think about how much he’s attended big Melee events. It’s a large contrast from his previous relationship with competing, which involved being relegated to the other side of the world – basically a 180. Maybe I’m just emitting bad juju for no good reason here. I’ll go with the interpretation that this is my brain’s way of projecting my fears about the rising tide of xenophobia in the United States onto one of my favorite players in the scene.
Soonsay
If one Canadian Fox can win, why not another? Soonsay, much like moky, has built a reputation as one of his country’s premier names. He has wins over each of Aklo, moky, and Cody Schwab, showcasing he can hang with the best Fox players in the world. And while the circumstances are a bit scuffed, he does technically boast a win over Zain in a semi-serious environment where Zain ended up winning the tournament anyway. Combined with a recent win over Jmook, In an alternate universe, it’s Soonsay who is sitting in the winners side of GOML grand finals.
My only hesitation has to do with Soonsay’s long-term trends in matchups that aren’t the fast-fallers or mid-weight characters. For example, he hasn’t beaten Hungrybox, which seems important given how consistently late in the bracket you’ll find in. Although Soonsay does boast wins over top floaties and mid-tiers, it’s not as if he overwhelmingly obliterates them. With respect to players who beat him – major contenders cannot be consistently dropping sets to people who are fringe Top 50 or outright outside of it. In a weird way, it seems like Soonsay is pretty good at all the “hard” things you need to win a major. It’s the “easy” things – skill gapping the field – where he struggles.
With that said, Soonsay could be in a position to indirectly benefit from a different field of top competitors next year. Based on what Cody’s mentioned about 2025 being a “Plup year” from him, that creates an environment more beneficial to players Cody typical farms: the Jmooks, Hungryboxs, and Aklos of the world. With Mang0 currently checked out, Leffen not active, and Plup – a slept on Fox-slayer in his own right – further not always in the picture, Soonsay is also going to have an environment filled with Fox and Sheik. He has a very clear path forward: exclusively preparing for Hungrybox and Zain. Obviously, being able to successfully execute on this preparation is a whole other category of difficulty, but if any player beneath the top echelon in the best position to claw a path forward, it’s probably Soonsay – or someone else I’m about to blow your mind with choosing for this segment.
Magi
I bet you didn’t expect to see Magi here, did you? It might be shocking to gas up someone who hasn’t been at anything notable since September, but I think Magi is still quite good. Her year is filled to the brim with victories over Top 25 to 30 players, where her cumulative head-to-heads against that range of players is honestly pretty stupefying. She has amazing headline wins too, with a set over moky at Supernova and a win over Jmook at SoCal Star League Championships. Yes, she lost to Fro116 at the same event; shit happens.
On one hand, maybe that truly is a major-contention-disqualifying result, and perhaps so is losing to Faust. After all, defeating at least one of Zain and Hungrybox is necessary to win a major, and Magi has done neither on the big stage (though, much like Soonsay, she has done that versus Zain in murky competitive circumstances). The same could be said for actually attending majors, which in my mind is the bigger problem. Far from her reputation as one of Melee’s most recognizable faces, she has only attended three majors this year: Genesis, Collision, and Supernova. I don’t really know where she’s been in the last two months in particular. Perhaps it’s the rise of Donkey Kong players that’s scaring her away (this is a joke).
You’ll notice that I haven’t brought up Magi’s Fox-slaying prowess yet. But that’s because it just hasn’t really come up that often yet outside of the moky win. Magi and him split sets this year, but outside of that, she hasn’t played Cody, Aklo, or Soonsay. Granted, she lost one set to Josh, but I would personally consider this group of top Fox players pretty favorable for her, all considered, especially if Cody isn’t in the picture. Much like I mentioned with Soonsay, the field as it’s currently shaping up for 2025 is going to be filled with more of the Luckys, Chems, and Fictions of the scene. If Mang0’s not around in the same capacity as he was this summer, I think this could shape up quite nicely for Magi, and if she can make progress against Marth and Jigglypuff, she has an extremely clear path forward. It’s admittedly a long shot by current results, but in terms of how she could trend, it’s in the cards. Someone, please sponsor her.
Nicki
Did any of you think I wasn’t going to point out the Popo-and-Nana shaped elephants in the room? Nicki absolutely deserves to be considered on the fringe of major contention. Along with beating Wizzrobe from earlier this year, Nicki just beat the three best players of the current generation – practically the most efficient way to enter this tier of consideration. It was so mind melting that it warranted comparisons to Wobbles’ Evo 2013 silver medal performance. In some ways, it was even more impressive due to the lack of wobbling. Regardless, I’ve seen enough to dub Nicki the truth.
Funnily enough, though his latest performance may not show it, Nicki is actually fairly weak vs. the spacies. For the sake of including even somewhat murky data, Nicki does have a double elimination at the hands of Pricent, a pair of losses to kins0 (though in an otherwise positive head-to-head), a dropped pre-local set to Preeminent, and another one to Wacco, the top Fox of Las Vegas. Now, personally speaking, many of these sets don’t hold much, if any, predictive value. However, they do exist, and generally speaking, volatile results come with the territory of playing the Ice Climbers. Clearly Nicki isn’t the same player he was in January, but it’s not as if Panda or Chem or SDJ is going to be a walk in the park, even with Nicki’s own improvements.
Heading into 2025, I want to see Nicki with more chances. I asked Nicki about his current plans for competing, and what he told me is straightforward: with his performance at DPOTG, he’s confirmed to himself that he’s capable of winning a major. If Nicki can get a Nouns sponsorship, he will not only be able to attend more events – he will be one step closer for his journey to bring the Ice Climbers to the top.