Skip to content

Monday Morning Marth: March 11

Edwin Budding
Published March 11, 2024

After a quick break, Melee’s finally back with another major in Collision 2024. What’s made this type of tournament especially different from other majors is a uniquely strong pound-for-pound entrant pool. You will rarely find tournaments where people who go 1-2 or even 0-2 are potentially ranked in their region. In Tristate, however, this is far more common than you’d think, and naturally, this makes Collision extremely difficult to preview. How can anyone make a confident prediction when there’s a strong possibility that multiple Top 100 players could very well drown in pools?

As a result, I’m going to take a drastically different approach to previewing this major. First, I will take a look at Round 1 Pools; I won’t be deep diving into every single possible matchup, because that’s just not reasonable, but I’m going to call out eight notable projected matches to look out for and why I think they’re pretty interesting. Granted: because this is a major we’re talking about, these projected matches are almost certainly going to change, but consider them more of player shoutouts and people to look out for in the bracket than necessarily only specific matches.

After that, I’m going to examine Round 2 Pools and do something similar. Instead of talking about projected matches, I’m going to call out one player in the projected winner’s side of each pool who I think has the most interesting path and “story” heading into the event, as well as a sleeper player in the projected loser’s side who could make a huge run. Once I’m done with this, I’m going to look at Top 32 itself and note some of the most exciting projected matches. And finally, when I’m done with this portion, I’m going to take a bit more of an abstract approach to discussing potential top eight paths, talk about what a major victory would look like for each of the biggest top seeds, and make my final prediction.

Round 1 Pools

As of right now, when I’m writing this, Pool MA2 currently has a projected matchup of essy vs. bonn. I can’t quite explain why, but the vibes just scream “evil” here. Most Melee fans know essy as the multi-character maining legend that’s ruled Cincinnati for the last seven years or so; bonn, on the other hand, is a bit obscure; he’s a power-ranked Pikachu player in New York City that beat lowercase hero and Skerzo at The Function 3.

In contrast and two pools later in MA4, you get the kind of matchup that most people will ignore, and yet the most hardcore terminally online Melee fans will absolutely not want to miss: Blake Grey vs. MarxistxAthena. The former is an incredibly cracked hidden boss from the Delaware region; the latter is a Jigglypuff player who, to my knowledge, has never entered an in-person event and whose entire reputation is built off her merciless camping versus opponents and her dedication to entering the online weekly Waddle Wednesday. I can honestly say that I’ve never seen someone inspire such a disproportionate amount of ire (even if fair) relative to their status in the broader scene than MarxistxAthena. She has practically built a brand around being the wackest player in the world.

We get to pool MA8 not too far afterward, and here we find ourselves with another interesting matchup in bonfire10 vs. Agent. I am quite fond of bonfire10 as a Poster, and it’s worth noting that her Sheik has now made the Top 100 ballot two years in a row. However, Agent is a relatively tough draw for her. He’s an extremely aggressive Fox player, as well as a very capable one who’s dominated the Albany region in recent memory yet hasn’t quite broken out on the big stage and was one of my 2024 breakout picks. This would be a big win for either player,but if they end up not playing each other, I’d still be interested to see how they perform in the broader event.

Later on in the tournament, we get to what I believe to be an especially ridiculous projected matchup in MC1: Kwyet vs. Kevbot. Judging by what I’ve heard from New Jersey players who have run into him on Slippi, Kwyet could be anywhere from “Top 50 in skill, easy” to being around PR-level, despite him not entering anything. Meanwhile, Kevbot, who usually remained power-ranked in NorCal, once looked like he was at the top of NorCal’s next generation before his activity fell off a cliff. I believe he’s moved to the Mid-Atlantic area, and he recently double eliminated essy at a regional (where Logan won). I have zero clue how good either player is and probably still won’t really know after this set, but I am interested in both of them.

Then, in MC5, we truly get a one-of-a-kind showdown in codeman vs. BINGHI. Yes, it’s that codeman, the insane Pichu player from Capital Region, and yes, it’s that BINGHI, the Mr. Game & Watch player from Connecticut who recently stunned E-tie at New York tournament. You’re just not going to see Pichu vs. G&W played at a respectable level too often, so if you miss this, you’ll have to wait a long time to ever see this matchup again. But if it doesn’t happen, still pay attention to these two players.

Pool MD1 has an interesting matchup of sorts in Zuppy vs. Jude. Now, these two technically have a history. Zuppy survived a game five scare from Jude at Apex 2022, only for Jude to shock the world at Shine 2023 by eliminating the Fox from the tournament. With that said though, much has changed since that point. Zuppy ended up finishing No. 15 in the world and switched to Falco, while Jude made the Top 100 ballot (just missing the final list). It would be a very strange, although not implausible, sequence of events if Zuppy, months after suffering a big loss with his best character, got his revenge with a new main at the same series where he had his greatest major performance. Conversely, maybe facing a familiar foe is what Jude needs to break through and potentially have his best showing since that Shine. I hope this matchup doesn’t change.

For Pool MD4, we get into a matchup of two regional favorites in Tito JoJo vs. Fudge. JoJo’s been really strong in New York City for quite some time now and has had strong performances vs. out-of-region talent as well; he just tends to get overlooked sometimes by proxy of how difficult his in-region opponents are, even as he performs well against them. Fudge is fairly similar in that sense, although his rise has been more recent than JoJo’s; I personally consider him Philadelphia’s “secret weapon.” The matchup here is less important than just knowing that the players.

My last matchup to look out for in R1 Pools is in MD8: Goodie vs. Tazio. I consider Goodie to be the closest thing to Joshman’s heir apparent in Australia, as he’s done quite well for himself and shown a commitment toward traveling and beating good out-of-region talent. Conversely, Tazio, a power-ranked Marth in New York City, doesn’t travel often, but has performed well at the local level.

Interesting Paths in Round 2 Players

Pool MAA1 features a very interesting case of a returning great in Logan. I believe they could either totally flame out or make it to Top 32 in the winner’s side of the bracket. As it stands right now, and assuming they reach round 2 as expected, Logan will have a matchup against Wevans, and if they win that, as is projected, they will most likely have a showdown with their former rival Aklo, a matchup we haven’t seen since Smash Summit 11, and the two players have taken very different paths since that set. I’ve wanted to see this for a long time, especially since it appears that Logan’s quite dedicated and active again. Over in loser’s, and most likely once he’s done running into the Cody Schwab-sized buzzsaw, we have a potential monster loser’s bracket run from YAMI – the secret boss of New England – incoming, with a projected path of Marth (lynxwynx and potentially Logan) and Sheik (Juicebox), two of his best matchups, to make it to Top 32.

The next pool (MBB2) has an especially insane loser’s bracket, but for now, the player I want to dial in on is Joshman. In his projected winner’s path, he will be playing TheSWOOPER and Trif, back to back. To be clear, Joshman is most likely favored against both players; I just think this particular combination of head-to-heads is ‘interesting’ because it may be the single most taxing combination of Top 100 players to play back-to-back. After Joshman, I think the storyline of Kevin Maples makes for a very interesting one to follow in loser’s, but frankly, even in winner’s as well. As of right now, he’s set to play and lose to 404Cray before having to defeat fitzy, Guava, and 2saint to make it out. I like this part of the bracket because it’s basically Kevin Maples making through the Tristate gauntlet, with the final boss of Round 2 being the same player he once eliminated from Shine 2019. There’s a nonzero chance he would temporarily become the most rooted against player in the Collision ballroom.

For MCC1, I feel like Ginger has to be the correct pick for player with the most on the line (or least, I’m not sure which). You really can’t top the stakes inherent to a “goodbye major,” which seems to be the case with Ginger here. As of right now, he has Mot$ and Spark to make it through to the winner’s side of Top 32. With due respect to those two players, they are relatively great draws for Ginger, as Fox and Sheik are two of his historically strongest matchups. After him though, the other player I’m quite dialed into for this group is Mr. New Jersey himself in Jflex (who, mind you, was supposed to be retired). He’s got a horrifying matchup in the winner’s bracket vs. Panda (who usually obliterates Sheik players underneath the top brass), but I actually like Jflex’s projected loser’s bracket path, both for himself and as a broader storyline for the event. Imagine him defending Tristate from the up-and-coming Maher, defeating K8A in a NJ vs. NYC showdown, and then, as the cherry on the top, eliminating Swedish Delight, a regional godfather of sorts to Jflex, from Collision to make Top 32.

In the final pool for Round 2 (MDD1), we then get into what I believe to be the most loaded sequence of killer matches on the winner’s side. It’s excruciatingly difficult to pick just one player to look out for here, but I’m going to go with a rejuvenated returning star in Nicki, the Fox-turned-Ice-Climbers player who’s terrorized and inspired the rest of Europe with his gameplay and community leadership. He’s currently set to play Skerzo, whom I anticipate him beating through a wall if Skerzo’s results vs. other Ice Climbers are indicative of anything, and then, most likely, Zain for Top 32. Now, I’m not crazy enough to say that Nicki will win for sure, but top-level Ice Climbers are a real rarity in the metagame, and Nicki is a far more terrifying opponent for Zain in this phase of the event than your typical Top 50 Fox player. My last player to look out for here: Wally. Not only could he have a chance in revenge sets vs. KJH (who beat him at Collision 2023) or KoDoRiN (where KoDoRiN beat Wally at Pound 2022); but even if he loses in the winners bracket, he has a gauntlet of swordsmen waiting for him in the losers bracket: Jude, Fro116, and perhaps Rishi. I know it’s been almost two years since Wally stunned Zain, but I will never sleep on his ability to shock world class players and Marth players alike.

Top 32 Notes

We now get into the projected Top 32. It’s near impossible to just pick one matchup here – and much can change – but there’s a lot to analyze here. Hungrybox/Ossify, lloD/KoDoRiN, and moky/Salt make up a fun trio of sets that range from electrifying to flashy to having viewers at the edge of their seats. I personally love the recent storyline of Ossify getting tested against each of the top echelon (moky at Genesis and Mango/Jmook/Zain at Full Bloom) in different matchups, so on the winner’s end, I’m most interested to see how he does.

On the other hand though, I know Mango has recently spent dedicated time toward reworking his matchup vs. Sheik, and his projected path to top eight here features matches against both Spark and Jmook, who just recently beat Mango in a close, but not ever meaningfully in doubt 3-1. It’s possible that it could swing the other way just a month later. A fun underlying storyline to this particular matchup is Jmook’s recent move into SoCal – imagine displacing Mango as the best player on the West Coast, and in part by beating him here on Jmook’s own turf too. The opposite result is just as compelling for Mango: beating the new SoCal invader on his old stomping grounds (sort of; Jmook is more upstate than classic Tristate, but we’re prioritizing telling a good story here).

I’ll be honest: looking through the losers side, I don’t know where to begin. In the projection we have right now, I’m particularly interested in how Logan and Lucky – two surging players – shape up against each other and everyone else. I’m also curious to see if there’s any possibility of Junebug’s Donkey Kong, a breakout star from last Collision, improving upon last year’s showing and maybe even making a major top eight for the first time. With that in mind though, I still can’t shake the thought of an Ice Climbers major top eight run from Nicki – his path right now of Rishi, Ossify, Salt, and Mango isn’t necessarily “easy,” but it is certainly in the cards. More likely, we’ll see Aklo or lloD in favorable positions to make the top eight here for another year.

What will The Top 8 look Like?

This top eight is pretty interesting, even assuming the projected matches happen as expected. Right now, the seeding-predicted winners side of the top eight is a duo of functional coin flips: Cody Schwab vs. moky, and Zain vs. Jmook. These are interesting in very different ways – Cody and moky haven’t played since GOML last year, while Zain and Jmook just went back and forth at Full Bloom, where Zain nudged him out in sets. One fairly interesting note here: for all the talk about Cody and Zain effectively being a clear notch above the field in their results, we haven’t actually seen them play tournament sets recently, with The Match happening three months ago and their set at The Big House happening five months ago. In similar fashion, we haven’t seen Cody vs. Jmook since they traded sets at Santa Paws (with Cody coming out on top, 2-1 in sets). The most recent combinations of these matches involve moky, with him beating Jmook at Genesis X, but losing to Zain shortly after.

On a broader level, it is hard to predict anyone who isn’t Cody – the dude who’s currently on a historic major-and-national-win-streak. But although most of his bracket looks pretty juicy, it’s only the case right before, in all likelihood, he plays close attention to Hungrybox (or Ossify) vs. moky (or Salt) in winner’s quarters. It’s not a guaranteed loss if he plays moky, and yet I guarantee you that Cody would have a far better chance vs. a Marth who, while great, isn’t Zain, a Captain Falcon, or Hungrybox – a frequently punching bag of Cody’s despite the occasional dropped set – in winner’s semifinals. That’s assuming, by the way, he gets by Aklo, who’s no slouch in the Fox ditto, even as Cody’s lately turned the corner on him in the head-to-head.

If anyone’s going to dethrone him to outright win a major, your best bet would have to be Zain. Undeniably, his consistency, as well as the fact that Leffen and aMSa are not here, is a huge asset toward his chances of winning the event, as obvious as it sounds. Keeping that in mind, like Cody, Zain’s going to be closely watching the outcome of Jmook vs. Mango. Although I don’t think the next set vs. Mango will be as lopsided as the 2023 set count has shown, it’s reasonable to still conclude that his chances of winning this event would be boosted by having to play Mango instead of Jmook, who just took a set from him.

While we’ve recently seen Jmook play moky and Zain, and broadly know how he and Cody do against each other, I’m strangely curious to see him square off against Hungrybox. In 2022, the two played just about 420 sets, with nearly every edition being some variant of a triumphantly soul-crushing Clutchbox victory, but the two only played twice in any meaningful fashion in 2023, with Hungrybox beating him down at CEO, but Jmook getting revenge at Fete. This matchup could be especially consequential if it happens in loser’s quarterfinals: for example, if Cody and Zain are in winners finals, as predicted, I think Zain’s chances of winning the event skydive in particular, since his hardest opponent would be out of the event (while for Cody, it might marginally improve).

Zooming out a bit in the case of moky, I am far more bullish on his chances of winning Collision than I was with Genesis, and a large part has to do with the bracket here. While we did see moky still have a strong performance at Genesis, it is hard to deny that Ossify/Trif/Leffen/ is much tougher to reach top eight through the winners side than 404Cray/Salt/Hungrybox here. This isn’t to say it’s a walk in the park; however, it is more favorable, as is the fact that he could then have a relatively good draw in Cody, whom he’s defeated multiple times before, to get to the winners finals. From there, he could maybe defeat Jmook for another time or, potentially, snap the losing streak against one of his two biggest demons.

Speaking of which, do I think that Mango can win this event? Yes, although I think that the numbers are relatively unfavorable, and even if I wouldn’t anticipate it to happen. I briefly mentioned “Mango vs. the Sheiks” as an underlying theme of Top 32; that storyline could easily turn into Mango’s revenge tour if he beat Jmook and continued to excel vs. any order of Zain and Cody to win the tournament. Granted, his 2023 was fairly putrid vs. both opponents, but given the difference between Mango’s efforts toward competitive Melee now vs. back then, I don’t think the head-to-head count accurately indicates what future sets will look like. Then again, this could be just cope; after all, Mango did just totally fumble losses to Ossify and Sirmeris at his last big tournament. At the same time, it is Mango.

Last, but not least, I want to mention Hungrybox in a bit more detail than I’ve given him so far. If you talked to most people following tournament results, I think they’d all state that Hungrybox is past his best playing days. Now, if you’re wondering if this is the part where I say “but don’t sleep on him,” surprise: I’m going the other way here. In fact, I actually think this bracket is terrible for Hungrybox. In addition to Ossify and moky being really tough Top 32 opponents, I think there’s basically no way that Hungrybox can feasibly avoid Zain and Cody at the same time. This is a rare instance of the type of event, where if it was slightly more stacked at the top level – such as if it had aMSa and Plup – it might have given Hungrybox more indirect “shields” for the event and more wiggle room to thrive in volatility. It’s not totally impossible, but I do think he needs quite a bit of luck to win Collision.

My Final Pick

I’ll be honest: these have not gone great for me, and long-time readers already know the legend of the Monday Morning Marth curse. Out of curiosity, I took a look at my last 15 official major predictions within this column, and I realized something truly awful: I think my infamously wrong aMSa call at The Big House 10 cursed me (or my Yoshi-main friend did). Here has been my track record for written predictions on who will win each big event I’ve previewed since that moment. It has not been pretty.

  • Smash Summit 14: Leffen
  • Collision 2023: Cody Schwab
  • Battle of BC 5: moky
  • LACS 5: Cody Schwab
  • Fete 3: Hungrybox
  • GOML 2023: Jmook
  • Super Smash Con 2023: Mango
  • Shine 2023: Zain
  • Riptide 2023: Zain
  • The Big House 11: Zain
  • Genesis X: Mango
  • Full Bloom 2024: Cody Schwab

Keeping this in mind, I’m going to pick moky as my choice for Collision 2024 champion. I believe that his strong bracket here and spectacular gameplay will do the trick and not only earn moky his first ever major, but end the curse of YarnYoshi.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Discover more from Melee Stats

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading