We’re halfway through 2024. Our annual summer Top 50 is about to come out, with the possibility of some players potentially making their debuts there. However, instead of breaking down the entire list or even trying to make a preview for it, I’m going to be focusing my sights on the highest spot.
Most of you know that I love talking about the race for number one. Last year, this was especially the case, as we had what most people consider the closest number one race of all-time; one so close that it literally came down to a single set. Naturally, I have an interest in seeing how the fight for the top rank shapes up this year.
First off, I’m looking at each of the last nine full seasons of SSBMRank -strictly as they pertain to major winners of each period, as they were the main contenders for the No. 1 spot. Instead of looking at their strict ranks, I’m going to look at them through major victories and supermajor victories, as well as how they shaped up by the end of the “summer” period before comparing them to their full year results. After that, I’ll take a look at the state of the 2024 race for number one.
Methodology
Long story short: I looked at everyone who won a major each year and assigned them each a point per major. If they won a supermajor, I gave them double the amount of normal points. Now, this is obviously not the only thing that goes into someone’s rank – that would feature head-to-head analysis as well. But for our purposes, it’s convenient enough as a proxy for the state of different number one races.
As a warning, you’re going to see a few discrepancies in terms of the major scores you see here and the actual rankings. In some instances, it may showcase that a player who ended up with a lower ranking was “closer” to passing the eventual No. 1 than someone with a higher ranking. I wouldn’t think about it too much though. Such instances are relatively rare.
The Most Dominant Years
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2017 Leffen | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2017 Plup | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2017 Mew2King | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2017 Mang0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2017 Armada | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 2017 Hungrybox | 5 | 13 | 1 |
NOTE: DPOTG 2016 was part of the 2017 SSBMRank season, so it counts here for Leffen’s summer score. I know – it’s confusing. Just bear with me.
2017 was initially a race between Armada and Hungrybox. In an exception to our general role of major score determining number one or not, it was also Armada who finished at No. 1 on Summer SSBMRank. Then, the race then took a hit from a Hungrybox-shaped wrecking ball, and he would go on to have one of the most dominant runs of all-time. One funny thing about this period, by the way, is how totally washed Hungrybox looked through most of July. In the span of about four tournaments, each of Mang0, Leffen, Mew2King, and even Plup’s relatively new Fox took him out to the wood-chipper. No one could have ever predicted that after practically single-handedly gifting majors away, the same player would basically just take over the scene.
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2014 Mew2King | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2014 PPMD | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2014 Armada | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2014 Mang0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
In 2014, you’ll notice that “The Five Gods Era” was really about three people who were capable of winning the largest events in the world. At most, maybe there were four. This was also when Armada was still perceived to have a choking problem at the largest events. The vibe behind top level Melee back then was that PPMD ruled the world for a while, disappeared amid chaos, then came back when Mang0 was taking over, and then disappeared again. By the back end of the year, when Mang0 won yet another big tournament, it was pretty obvious who number one was. This is a year where the gap between the best player and everyone else wasn’t through head-to-heads; it was through overwhelmingly winning the biggest tournaments.
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2018 Zain | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 2018 Leffen | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2018 Mew2King | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 2018 Plup | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2018 Armada | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 2018 Hungrybox | 4 | 9 | 1 |
I feel bad looking at 2018. The year began with a brief bit of promise with a Plup supermajor win. Then Hungrybox went back to winning a bunch of smaller events, then some more chaos with a Mew2King win and an Armada win. After the Swedes (and Zain) had a great August though, it was never the same. Armada retired, and with his greatest enemy out of the way, Hungrybox ruled the remaining majors with no one left to stop him.
Closer Than You Might Remember
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2019 Axe | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2019 Wizzrobe | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 2019 Mang0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 2019 Leffen | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2019 Hungrybox | 4 | 7 | 1 |
2019 was a strange year. Our top players were experimenting with Smash Ultimate, and terms of Melee, we basically knew who the favorite was for number one, but it wasn’t really a guarantee. For a brief moment in time, there was a chance that Wizzrobe was trending toward being the best player in the world, as crazy as it may sound. Before CEO 2019 he had finished in second place at Smash Summit 8, outright won Smash ‘N’ Splash 5 and beaten Hungrybox at GOML 2019. Had he won CEO, Wizzrobe might have legitimately finished the summer at No. 1.
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2022 Leffen | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 2022 Cody Schwab | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2022 Hungrybox | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2022 Mang0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2022 aMSa | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 2022 Zain | 3 | 6 | 1 |
2022 was a tight race, all things considered. No one really seemed dominant or like they were going to run away other than Zain at the beginning of the year. And even then, Cody was slowly catching up. The second half of the year was totally different though. Zain basically held the line while Leffen, Cody, and Hungrybox got replaced by a suddenly resurgent Mang0 and the best version of aMSa the community had ever seen. As an aside, and at the risk of diminishing a genuinely amazing accomplishment Zain had in finishing No. 1, I do wonder what would have happened had he been present at Mainstage or Scuffed World Tour. Would he have won at least one of them anyway, or would we have taken Mang0 or aMSa’s wins with significantly more prestige and meaning? It’s hard to say.
To be clear: I would never accuse an incredibly dedicated and formidable competitor like Zain of dodging a tournament to protect his rank. In the case of Scuffed World Tour, he couldn’t make the event due to a family emergency. However, there’s a bigger point here, and one I believe he’d agree with. The fact of the matter is that 2022 ended up as a three-person race, where some of the achievements for Zain’s closest peers ended up coming at events without him present, which, in part, devalued their resumes When you think about it, there’s an incentive structure here that creates conflict. Is a player “in the lead” of a No. 1 race obligated to protect their rank and sit out tournaments so that opponents can’t get wins over them? Or is this player supposed to attend no matter what? This an issue that, as I’ve talked about, isn’t the “fault” of the rankings of the panel, or even of the players. It is, however, a rare situation that lacks a clear answer. If you’re curious as to my thoughts, I’ve written about it here.
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2016 Mew2King | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2016 Leffen | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 2016 Mang0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 2016 Hungrybox | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| 2016 Armada | 3 | 8 | 1 |
You know, 2016 seemed like a very close race for most of the year. It was a two-person race that then had two wild cards, and once Hungrybox pulled away with Evo, it might have been natural to think that was Hungrybox’s spot to lose. Even by the time Mang0 won Big House, it was possible that it became a three-person race. That changed when Armada destroyed everyone in the back end of the year en route to No. 1. I do think though – while he was clearly the best player, Armada also benefited from Leffen’s absence for a huge portion of 2016. This isn’t to say he was a fraudulent number one, but it contextualizes his 2016 season in a way where most of his success either came without Leffen present, or in the course of a few months.
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2023 Plup | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2023 Leffen | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2023 Jmook | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2023 Zain | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 2023 Cody Schwab | 3 | 6 | 2 |
As practically all of you know, 2023 literally came down to one set. It also hides the fact that Jmook and Cody were the top two before Zain suddenly took over in the summer. Then it was Cody’s turn. And yet somehow it’s not the closest race of all-time – not in our particular metric.
The Actual Closest Race of All-Time**** (By This Very Particular Metric)
| Player | Summer Major Score | Final Major Score | Final Annual Rank |
| 2015 PPMD | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 2015 Mang0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2015 Hungrybox | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2015 Leffen | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 2015 Armada | 2 | 7 | 1 |
How could a No. 1 race be closer than one set? The answer: arguably, a visa ban. Had Leffen attended The Big House 5, he could have actually won and locked it up for 2015. Instead, Armada ruled the end of the year, and a tragedy occurred: the godslayer was robbed of his own dream: ending The Five Gods Era himself. Now, keep in mind, Leffen would still need to win The Big House or another event, which is not necessarily a guarantee. In fact, in a sense, he still had a opportunity to potentially grab No. 1 with a win at DreamHack Winter 2015. Instead though, he lost to Westballz and Duck for 9th place, not only killing his chance for the top spot, but actually putting him beneath Hungrybox for the year. There definitely is some humor in the timelessness of Samus spoiling the ambitions of a top Fox player; some things never change.
Where Does 2024 Fit In?
| Player | Summer Major Score |
| 2024 Zain | 4 |
| 2024 Cody Schwab | 3 |
| 2024 Mang0 | 2 |
| 2024 aMSa | 0 |
| 2024 Hungrybox | 0 |
NOTE: I am only going strictly off Liquipedia. This does not mean that Full Bloom “doesn’t count” – I am just using major eligibility and my ‘hybrid stat” as a proxy for estimating the state of the current number one race.
Basically, what you need to know is that it currently looks pretty close in terms of the major victory count. Although it is very clear that Zain is in the lead, it’s hardly by an insurmountable number. Last year, we saw something pretty similar until Cody ran away with the second half of the year and nudged out Zain. Who’s to say that it can’t happen again, or that someone like Mang0 can’t suddenly go on a tear? Contextualizing it with previous years, we can say that the “typical” number 1 year involves a score of 7.3. For the sake of argument, because we have only 7 events for the rest of the year, let’s say the score that ‘guarantees’ number one is 7. Here’s what it means.
- With two more major wins, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the field, Zain will basically lock up the race. In fact a single supermajor win probably seals the deal, though it may become difficult if Zain bombs the other events and someone like Cody dominates them.
- Cody isn’t as far behind as it looks because he’s already won Genesis. Another supermajor win or two majors could actually place Cody ahead of Zain. Cody isn’t out of it, but he can’t drop one of the premiers to Zain.
- Mang0’s still clearly behind, but to make it a race, he needs to dial the back clock to 2022 or win Supernova. To take the lead, he likely needs multiple majors, and one of them will need to be a supermajor. If Zain wins a supermajor, Mang0 likely falls out of the race even if he wins some smaller major events.
- It’s probably over for aMSa, Hungrybox, Jmook, and moky in terms of finishing at No. 1. However, if any of them win majors, it throws chaos into the mix. If any of them go on a tear similar to 2022 Mang0 or 2022 aMSa, it likely still isn’t enough and would require something extraordinary like both Cody and Zain falling totally off the map, as well as Mang0 entering another slump.