With another weekend of the NFL playoffs out of the way, I’ve been thinking about sports. Sports are sometimes bullshit. One play makes or breaks an entire narrative for how we see a completely different player. The best team doesn’t always necessarily coincide with being the best team on a given day. Outcomes of matches are dependent on numerous factors, and yet the only thing that most people care about is the result. Did you win? You’re the best. Did you lose? You’re a choker.
Melee isn’t too different from sports in that sense. Although we technically have Slippi stats, the way we evaluate players is typically through the lens of wins and losses. It doesn’t matter whether or not you took someone to game five, lost a “close” 3-0, or if you got sent to the shadow realm by Jmook: a loss is a loss, and a win is a win. It’s navigating the journey behind these results, however, that I find very interesting.
On a similar note to wins and losses defining player careers, major top eight appearances exist as another binary benchmark of sorts. They’re not always indicative of a player’s legacy, but the more times you’ve made top eight, the likelier it is that people remember you. As it turns out, many great players have made top eights. But many great players haven’t made top eights yet either. In today’s column, I’m going to break down some of the most prominent high profile players in the scene who haven’t made a top eight.
MOF
Nicki is the world’s best active Ice Climbers player, and MOF isn’t as far behind him as their upcoming ranks may show. While she has yet to overcome her heartbreaker vs. Zain the way Nicki has, she does have something that he doesn’t in a win over moky. In general, MOF’s resume showcases an ability to take on the best of the best. Wins over the likes of Jmook, Soonsay, and Ossify showcase that with the right bracket, the dream MOF top eight is very possible.
Out of the top Ice Climbers though, MOF does seem to be extra volatile. Having dropped regionals in Europe to Frenzy and Jah Ridin’, she definitely is not a lock for defeating players she’s expected, by the book, to win against. It isn’t just a problem at lower stakes events either: with respect to players that have significantly made upsets over her at majors, MOF has had her fair share of underwhelming showings on the big stage. In fairness to her, health issues contributed a large part to some of her weaker showings. Furthermore, she did well at Afterburner to start this year on the right note. Perhaps MOF can build off this performance and get back to what she’s clearly good at in defeating Top 10 players. Given that she attends quite a bit, it feels very much in play for 2025.
Ossify
Picking Ossify is a bit of a technicality – Jackzilla may want to bonk me over the head with a club for following Liquipedia here instead of the vibes for Full Bloom. But I’m going to do it anyway. It’s convenient to pick the guy who beat Mang0 at Full Bloom and has practically devoured everyone in the Midwest. What’s also been pretty strong about Ossify is his matchup spread too. More than just slaying spacies (Zamu, SFOP, Ginger), Ossify’s generally turned the corner on opposition like Morsecode and Ben. He also won the runback with Khalid, getting his revenge from last year.
By placement, Ossify’s actual major performances have been pretty underwhelming. However, when I went and checked what went wrong, honestly, his losses are overwhelmingly to fellow peers or Top 10 players. Would you really hold losses to moky and Aklo against Ossify? What about Nicki or Axe – in his first sets vs. each of them? Maybe the 2saint loss at GOML wasn’t the expected outcome, but nobody is going to look at Zain, in the winners bracket, as a bad loss. MOF, Medz, KoDoRiN, aMSa – these are peers or outright brutal draws. Granted, one way of interpreting these results is saying that these ‘consistent’ losses show that Ossify ‘consistently’ isn’t within this group of players. That’s fair to hold against him for a ranking (where resume and major head-to-heads matter), but in terms of long-term trajectory, I’m bullish. Ossify’s dominance within the Midwest showcases at least some potential to farm comparable players when given enough chances. Typically, that coincides with future major top eights.
Aura
With each of Trif, lloD, Polish, and Wally having made top eights, it’s about time for another Peach in Aura to make his debut. He most notably had four amazing performances in 2024: a top eight at Altitude Sickness, a fourth-place at Smash Camp: New Lands, and two outright wins at Carnival Clash 2 and Ghost Town 2. In the process, he destroyed Top 25 stalwarts and major dark horses such as Joshman, Zamu, Spark, and Fiction. I would say that Auras regional success against vaunted peers illustrates an upward trajectory.
On one hand, Aura’s penchant for chewing up and spitting out top Fox players didn’t necessarily translate on the major stage. On the other hand, I think it was the luck (or lack thereof) of whom he drew in his bracket. A loss to Mang0 and a loss to moky do not show me that a Top 25 player struggles vs. Fox. In fact, the ‘worst’ major loss he’s had all year came to ether CPU0, a notable Jigglypuff representative playing the winning side of a heavily lopsided matchup. Seeders: please give Aura a bracket full of Top 25 Fox players at his next major and watch him perform magic.
Morsecode762
Surprise: the guy who beat Cody Schwab and Jmook twice is one of my picks for a potential major top eight breakout in 2025. But another interesting trend is his consistency despite relatively few majors. Judging by his out-of-region losses since The Big House 10, Morsecode only loses to people around the Top 25 range. In fact, if he made a major top eight, he’d be the first Samus to do it since HugS seven years ago.
You all know what the problem is, right? Morseocde doesn’t attend shit. Since the return of SSBMRank, Morsecode’s only event outside of the Midwest (we’re counting Ontario as the Midwest; just roll with it) was when he went to Super Smash Con 2023. With enough majors, I’m sure he could do it. At the same, is he even going to attend two this upcoming year? HugS: please use your totally-not-landlord money to fund Morsecode’s travel and break your streak as the last Samus to make a major top eight.
Zamu
Surprise – we get into the obvious poster child for this column’s subject. Zamu’s results, historically speaking, are pretty up-and-down, but her peaks are really as good as anyone. What comes to mind are obviously her win over moky at Shine 2023, her multiple wins over Cody Schwab, and her broader success in the Fox ditto. As far as I’m concerned, anyone within or surrounding the Top 25 with multiple wins over the Top 5 is someone who can make top eight at a major. Sidenote: Zamu also has an immense tolerance for suffering, which is a prerequisite for being a Melee player.
I will say too: most of Zamu’s “bad” losses at majors age fine. When I looked at these events, and not, say, random locals or regionals where a Midwest player steals a set, who are her worst losses? Kacey, who went on to defeat Panda and break out at Supernova? Drephen, who is an ageless being? Raz, who beat Salt at the same event? The people who “upset” Zamu anywhere with meaningful stakes go on to do great. Honestly, her current place in regards to the original topic reminds me of where Spark was before 2024. For years, Spark was somewhere in the middle of the Top 25 or so pecking order, stuck without a top eight. Then, he suddenly did it and beat multiple of the best players in the world.
As it stands, Zamu has been ranked four times in the Top 100 – soon to be five after 2024. Within those years, she has three appearances within the Top 50, and one of them came as high as No. 22. I don’t know where Zamu will finish on the upcoming Top 100, but it’s really quite rare for someone to achieve her level of success in the first place. Honestly, I think Zamu might be the greatest player to never make a top eight. Thankfully though, it seems like she’s going lose that title very soon.