The largest Melee tournament ever is happening this weekend. That’s not a sentence I ever thought I’d be writing in 2025, of all years, but due to a bit of clever marketing, a practically irreplicable business model for other events, and a suspiciously long list of attendees lacking prior Melee results, here I am writing about Supernova 2025. With 2,422 entrants, Supernova has officially passed Evo 2016 as the biggest major ever.
By all accounts, this record is extremely scuffed. In fact, I fully expect there to be an extremely high level of DQs from the official bracket. Looking through the round one pools, I have found basically four people per group that I recognize as actual tourney attendees. At the same time though, I don’t really care. I think this is a good accomplishment for Melee tournaments, and I have to give credit where credit is due in that if it were so easy to get a bunch of people to sign up for a Melee bracket, everyone would do it. Even accounting for the ways in which this tournament could inflate the numbers of Melee entrants, I previously expressed skepticism that Supernova would break the record. At the very least, this will be a uniquely exciting tournament.
In either case, we have a lot to talk about today, and with such a big tournament coming up this weekend, I don’t want to waste any more time. For today’s column, I’m going to be jumping into everything Melee-related you should be looking out for at Supernova 2025.
A Brief Disclaimer
A lot can change when it comes to major tournaments. When I say that, I’m not just referencing the natural unpredictability of tournaments; I’m literally referencing the fact that the tournament itself will change, either in format, present competitors, or the structure of the event. One such change that came to my attention while writing this column was Supernova’s decision to run all of doubles on Thursday.
To put it kindly, this was not well-received. According to one competitor I spoke to, they expect there to be, “like, five teams” that will be present on Thursday. The situation was unfortunate enough for the heads of the tournament to announce that they will be completely refunding anyone’s doubles sign-ups if they have been impacted by the scheduling discussion. It’s really unfortunate, because the doubles bracket was shaping up to be fairly interesting. Given the unprecedented scale of the singles bracket, as well as the other games Supernova is running tournaments for, the decision to move doubles to Thursday definitely had some sense to it; the lack of timely communication about this to the public, however, was where everything went wrong.
All this is to say that for today’s column, I will not be previewing doubles at Supernova. Instead, I’ll jump right into singles, where we certainly will not have anything short of substance to discuss.
Pools
Today’s singles preview is going to start in a different place from my previous major previews. Instead of looking at every single round pool and picking out one match or player to look out for, I’m going to begin with round two pools (Top 256) here. Having looked through the entrants list, as well as each round one pool myself, there’s anywhere from two to four players I recognize in each pool. Unlike an event like Collision or Genesis, Supernova features a lot of newcomers to competitive play entirely, as well as entrants from other Smash games. I fully expect there to be several DQs. To make up for this, I’m not going to limit myself to one notable winners bracket match per round two pool. Instead, I will pick one notable projected match per pool, either because it carries upset potential or I find it interesting, and then I will pick a separate player seeded below top two in the pool to look out for.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Although I fully expect brackets to slightly change after this is published, hopefully it won’t change too much.
Starting in Pool E317, we have a potential Jigglypuff vs. Mr. Game & Watch showdown in Chango vs. glock in my toyota. I’m fascinated about this matchup because these two have actually played before, with glock defeating him at a previous Shine. I’m personally hoping for glock to win simply so that he gets a shot against Zain to make it to Top 64. Obviously, he would enter any such match as a massive underdog, but in a world after BING defeated Cody Schwab in his first try, all I’m saying is that it wouldn’t be the craziest result to ever happen. With that said, I’m also interested to see Kacey, a breakout star of a previous Supernova. She’s currently the third seed of this pool and would have to play The Leaf and Kevbot to make it out: both in the Fox matchup, which Kacey historically does well in.
Moving over to Pool E318, my attention went immediately toward the Top 64-qualifier match of n0ne vs. eve, a regionally ranked Jigglypuff player from Maryland. The former is basically a lock for Top 25 on summer rank, but many of you reading this may not be familiar with eve. After years of strong in-region play, she’s lately taken her results to a whole new level, defeating both Dawson and Solobattle in the last few months. She’s also had close calls before with top talent; I personally still remember her game three with KoDoRiN at Pound 2022. Interestingly enough though, n0ne vs. eve isn’t a lock to happen, because in the round before, eve has to defeat sinbad, a top Sheik from Jacksonville. He falls into the group of players that dominates regional peers, yet doesn’t travel very much: the exact type of person who could randomly spoil someone else’s day.
There’s a lot to watch out for in Pool F317. I ended up going with Zealot vs. Graves as the match to check out. In Graves’ case, he is fresh off a Top 50 appearance on the summer rankings, and Zealot is arguably the best “activeish” player in the world to never be ranked. In the same pool, however, comes someone who could really catch some people off guard at this tournament, and that would be irfan. Assuming he makes it to the winners quarterfinals of this pool, he has the New Jersey Fox Adwan into the world-destroying Cody Schwab. I think his Fox matchup is actually quite strong; maybe not enough to outright beat Cody, but take a game or two. If he gets to Cody and loses there, he would likely play either of Grab2Win, FLiiNcHy, or Graves to make it out.
My eyes locked in on Kevin Maples vs. fitzy in Pool F318. Kevin is the hometown favorite and in-region No. 1, yet fitzy’s had a huge come up this year, boasting wins over Preeminent, Solobattle, and a recent local tournament she won over Epoodle. Over on the other side of this pool, we have Inngenn, a player we get to see outside of Japan roughly once or twice a year, and someone who, months ago, defeated aMSa for the first time. For what it’s worth though, he has a hard bracket. Joey Donuts, his five seed opponent, is a Minnesota hidden boss with potential that goes way beyond his results, and even safely assuming that Inngenn gets by him, he’ll have to play Spark, who is heavily favored against any Marth player that isn’t Zain. If everything goes as planned, Inngenn would then play a ditto against regEx or take on a Young Link in bambz. He should be favored in either case; it’s just hard.
What if I told you that Dawson vs. Epoodle has only happened once, and it was at last year’s Supernova? I assumed that these two budding Top 50 players had at least played in-region before, and apparently they haven’t. Dawson did 3-0 him the last time they played, but that was before Epoodle’s level up, in which he’s grown to taking local sets over SDJ and Aklo. But will Epoodle get there? That depends on which version of Fred Melee, the sixth seed of Pool G317, we see appear: the Professor Pro-and-MOF-slayer or the “solid, but not beating Epoodle” player he has been for most of his career.
Pool G318 is where I’m going to swing for the fences. Instead of picking OkayP vs. Drephen, I’m going to go all the way to the first round of this pool and point out Balloon Day vs. BINGHI, a Connecticut Mr. Game & Watch player whose results range from flaming out of pools to randomly defeating Top 100 players out of his region. Balloon Day is obviously a much better player by results, and the heavy favorite, but this is much tougher than the typical opponent he could be playing at this point of the tournament. And on that note, my pick for the sleeper threat of this pool is the returning ChuDat. His last two performances in this series have admittedly been pretty bad, and I don’t even know if ChuDat plays Melee any more. But he also enters only one tournament a year at this point, which is hardly enough to make any judgment about his play. Before he went nationally inactive, the running line on ChuDat was that it was impossible for him to ever not be Top 100; maybe we’re just in that world now. Conversely, perhaps this slump he’s in is merely pronounced because he now goes to one event each year.
Maelstrom vs. Dova seems like the most interesting match of Pool H317. The Hungrybox-slayer and MD/VA darling Maelstrom barely needs any introduction; Dova, however, is more obscure. He’s a strong Hawaii Falco player that’s largely been relegated to beating up on his own region, as well as beating top players at Netplay tournaments and Slippi. But it’s hard to say how legitimate they are when his whole region’s standard connection with other players is notoriously ass. Anyway, I would also look out for New England Fox Electroman on this same side of the pool. I like his bracket too, with projected matches against Tristate Fox player LordTet and then another set against Bbatts, whom I’d honestly expect to DQ given his lack of interest competing for Melee right now.
Who needs Axe vs. aMSa when we have JChu vs. Peanutphobia at home? JChu is a rising star that almost certainly would have made the summer Top 50 if he was active, while Peanutphobia is a rising star of Chicago that’s coming home to the region where his come up happened. . For my non top-two seed to watch, I’m going with null, the SoCal Fox, as my player to watch. Despite being largely inactive since his rise to Top 25, he could still be a challenge for JChu in the Top 64-qualifier match.
Who needs Axe vs. aMSa when we have – wait, I already ran this bit. Blesse vs. Daniel in Pool I317 is another high-level Pikachu vs. Yoshi match. Blesse’s coming off a deep run at Unranked too, while Daniel has gradually gone from hidden boss to Top 10 status in New York City. For what it’s worth, the winner of this match will likely play Axe, so this side of the pool is filled with inherent wackiness. On the other side of the pool, we have Faith, the ex-Top 50 Philadelphia Marth player, making her first appearance at a major since Don’t Park on the Grass last year. Although she hasn’t been very active, she did have a previous great showing in MD/VA in 2025 where she beat Zasa, Khryke, and Maelstrom in a run to second place at a regional.
I’m dead serious when I say that for Pool I318, I am very curious to see how Aura vs. Vish plays out. These two actually have a history within the Pacific Northwest, with their times at the top level largely not coinciding with the other one. Many of you might forget this, but Vish is also notoriously very strong vs. Peach; four years ago, he actually beat Aura at an old Galint Melee Open. Now, I don’t actually think that the new version of Aura – one who makes top eights and beats players like Salt and Cody Schwab – will lose this set, but if he wins, he’s projected to play a sneaky good four seed of this pool in Jude, a returning Top 100 Marth player. I haven’t seen Aura lose to many Marth players that aren’t Zain, KoDoRiN, or Ossify, but the only other sets of him vs. Marth that I can remember are him defeating Yamsaki on a weekly basis a while ago. Maybe that foretells doom for Jude, a vaguely comparable player to Yamasaki on the whole. However, Jude is different in that he’s very experienced in the matchup across a variety of styles, and has historically been competitive with people such as Bbatts and Wally. As it stands, if he loses to Aura as expected, he would theoretically play Snap to make it to Top 64.
One of the most interesting matches of Pool K317 is Aklo vs. Jamie. Most of you reading this know Aklo; Jamie, however, is a top Jigglypuff from the United Kingdom who’s been traveling more for Melee this year. These two have also actually played before, with Jamie taking Aklo to game five. My pick for sleeper player of this same pool is Casper, a Fox of SoCal fame that’s making his first appearance at a big event in a year. He’s the sixth seed of this pool, which feels very low, but he has a shot against DarkGenex, and even if he loses, he could do some damage in the losers bracket.
When was the last time we saw Nanami? The former hidden boss turned Top 100 player and multi-main has largely been off the grid for major results since she beat Voo and Dawson at Genesis. I’m interested to see how Nanami vs. Panda in Pool G318 goes given that the two are both very strong in the Fox ditto (although Nanami might go Marth depending on the stage, and she would have to get by M1sF1re). Additionally, I have to mention Mooshies, the SoCal Mr. Game & Watch who delivered Wisconsin and the United Kingdom extinction level events when he eliminated Lowercase hero and Jamie from Genesis. He’s in a position to do that to two regions here: MD/VA and Germany, with prospective matches against Frostbyte and Rikzz.
The best match of Pool L317 is going to be mgmg vs. MarxistxAthena: both nationally unranked players who on a pound-for-pound level keep up with the best of their region. I guess that’s technically more true in mgmg’s case as a regionally active Fox player, while MarxistxAthena’s Jigglypuff prowess has mostly been at online tournaments, but ask anyone who plays here, and they’ll tell you she’s the real deal. She recently had a regional showing where she beat Epoodle, Freezus, and GabeGlitches; MarxistxAthena is not your average regionally ranked Jigglypuff. Beneath them, I’ll be watching how Arn255, Kikoho’s successor to the Connecticut Marth throne, performs; he recently beat Mot$ at a small tournament and has been on the come up within both New England and Tristate.
It’s not often that you’ll find a high level Luigi vs. Mr. Game & Watch set, but we’re expected to witness it in Pool L318: RapMonster vs. Walmart Shoes. What a strange matchup; I truly have nothing else to say about it. The fifth seed here is Fudge, a Falco player I once picked to break out in 2024 and made the Top 100 ballot. While lloD is effectively a buzzsaw of death as the one seed, I’m curious to see Fudge vs. Freezus, the four seed, as a neat little microcosm of Philadelphia vs. New York City.
If I had to pick a match to watch in Pool M317, it would be Seven vs. Dimension, a hometown hero Sheik player and newcomer to the Top 50 against a very good, though inactive, Fox/Marth player. Colorado has a bunch of people under Zealot who all kind of blend in together as vaguely all around the same “very cracked and very nationally inactive” category of smashers, but Russell stands out a little more because of his past regional dominance in the Boulder region. He’s capable of tearing through the losers bracket, although he has a fairly tough winners bracket opponent in Morsecode762.
For our final pool in M318, the matchup I’m choosing will be a very bizarre one seed vs. eight seed match of Jmook vs. Artan. Let’s be real here: with respect to Artan, there is no reason that Jmook should not destroy him. In fact, Artan is in a stretch of national underperformances, so it’s not like he’s trending highly. And yet with Artan’s history of making historic upsets at Supernova, as well as Jmook’s penchant for randomly losing before there’s any reason for him to drop a set, I can’t help but watch this one very closely. mvlvchi is another person to look out for in this pool; he’s got a good path from TheAsianOne, a Falco/Fox player, into Ben, a fellow Top 50 player who mvlvchi terrorized for a whole weekend last year when he beat Ben approximately 99 times across two events (okay; it was only three sets).
Top 64
In this section, I’m going to split the winners bracket into quarters based on the projected bracket structure. From here, and based on each quarter, I will then select the matches I find most interesting and choose one player whom I believe will make it to the winners side of top eight. Most of you reading this will recognize this format from my GOML preview; in similar fashion to what I did last month, I will make note of any matches within the “Edwin Universe” that differ from the seeding projections.
By seeding, the first quarter of matches will be Zain/Kevbot, Nicki/n0ne, Krudo/Morsecode, and Jmook/Ben. However, in my personal bracket prediction, I’m going to make two small changes: instead of playing n0ne, Nicki will play eve, and instead of playing Ben, Jmook will play mvlvchi. I will then make my first big call: Nicki defeats eve, Zain, and Jmook (who enacts his revenge on Krudo in the rematch) in a row to reach the winners side of the top eight.
In the second quarter of matches, we have moky/Maelstrom, Junebug/JChu, Axe/Sirmeris, and Aura/Ginger. Like I did with the first quarter, there are two changes for me to make: Dova taking Maelstrom’s spot and null taking JChu’s spot. Actually, you know what? Life’s too short, so let’s have a third big one: Ginger plays Jude instead of Aura. I’ll also go out on a limb and say that moky doesn’t make it to the winners side of top eight – instead, it will be Junebug, who beats null, moky, and Axe to make it out.
At the moment, the third quarter is projected to be Cody/Zealot, Spark/Kevin Maples, SDJ/Zanya, and lloD/RapMonster. I’ll make two tiny changes here – rather than playing Zanya, SDJ will play Preeminent, and rather than playing Kevin Maples, Spark will play fitzy. In either case though, I predict Cody beats anyone he plays to make the top eight. If I had to guess, the path is Zealot, Spark, and then SDJ in the rematch, although it’s not impossible to imagine lloD being there instead.
We finally have our last winners bracket section; by seeding, the expected matches are Hungrybox/Dawson, Magi/OkayP, Aklo/Khryke, and Panda/Rikzz. In our bracket, we’re going to replace Dawson with Epoodle. But the surprises will not stop there. I am now going to make the most crack-smoking call of the entire tournament: Epoodle is going to defeat Hungrybox, but he will then lose to OkayP, who upset Magi, but OkayP will then lose to Panda, who, in turn upset Aklo, and will be this quarter’s representative in the winners side of top eight.
Final Predictions
In preparation for Unranked, I hosted a lengthy Discord call in the Melee Stats server where I looked at the entire bracket with a few friends and community members. Part of what made this so enjoyable was the introduction of a TL;DR triad for predictions – everyone who participated in the call made a prediction for Breakout Pick (notable player to significantly outperform their seed), Flop Pick (notable player to significantly underperform their seed), and Winner Pick. While some people may take offense to the idea of a “Flop Pick,” it’s with respect to a player’s perceived reputation or seeding heading into an event, as well as the difficulty of their bracket. This is all done with love as fans for the game and not people actually trying to judge players as human beings for their results.
Unsurprisingly, and in line with my predictions, Nicki is my definitive breakout pick for this tournament. His bracket is really good and, from what I can tell, avoidant of potential matchup specialists or characters that we’ve seen give him problems. Although Panda is technically a lower seed (22) that I have making top eight, I’m slightly less confident about his bracket path, if only because I think Nanami is more of a challenge for him than Gahtzu will be for Nicki in the same spot. I considered having Epoodle in this spot by virtue of picking potential upsets, but decided against it due to the inherent craziness surrounding that part of the bracket anyway.
Speaking of which, I’m going to pick Hungrybox as my flop pick. This is because of a few factors in particular: the previous crack-huffing prediction of Epoodle defeating him, his spot as the third seed, and the difficulty of his path otherwise. Either Dawson or Epoodle is not a free win for him in Top 64, and while I believe either of Magi or OkayP are favorable opponents, the same can’t be said for either of Aklo or Panda, who have both beaten Hungrybox before. Again, I did predict that Epoodle will beat him, so I basically have to pick Hungrybox by default, but even if he beat Epoodle or Dawson as any normal person would assume, this path screams “loses to Aklo and Zain for ninth place” out loud to me.
Before, we get into my winner pick, I want to talk about one of my first columns of the year: one where I discussed Zain’s entry into the pantheon of all-time greats: a Melee Mt. Rushmore of sorts with the faces of himself, Hungrybox, Armada, and Mang0 figuratively carved onto it. For much of his career, I think that Cody has been perceived as spending countless hours and several years of his life trying to catch up with Zain. To the public, the story of Cody’s career has been him being the one player who can claim to have consistently challenged Zain for the title of greatest player of the doc kid era. Several of his lowest lows as a competitor – such as feeling like he’d never make it to the top – have come by virtue of Zain. Even his greatest moments, like winning Shine 2023 or The Match have involved Zain in some way.
I think there would be a beauty in Cody winning Supernova 2025. This a tournament series that he has never won; a tournament hosted on Zain’s home turf, and in this upcoming iteration, there’s a very good chance that the two end up not playing. For what it’s worth, a victory at Supernova would give Cody his 15th major title, only one below Ken. In fact, as far as supermajors are concerned, it would give Cody his fifth ever supermajor win, which, per Liquipedia, would put him under Mang0 (12), Armada (11), Hungrybox (8), and Zain (6). He would also become the only person other than Mang0 and Armada who can claim to have won each of Smash Summit, Supernova, Big House, and Genesis: practically a career Grand Slam of the post-Evo era.
When Cody won Tipped Off 16, he celebrated his victory with what I think is the best popoff of the 2020s. Upon cementing a three-to-one lead for major victories in the summer ranking period, Cody leaped from his chair, stood opposite of his greatest rival, and proclaimed to the world, “I’m the fucking best.” I can think of no more fitting ending to the story of the biggest tournament of all-time: to have Cody’s time in the spotlight finally come uncontested and stand on its own, rather than in comparison to someone else. At the biggest tournament of all-time, it will be Cody that stands alone, towering over everyone else, showing the whole world that he’s still the best, and holding the Supernova 2025 trophy.