Monday Morning Marth 8/12/2024: Guest Edition
Hello, Grab here. You may know me from my moderately successful Marth play, or my tournament write ups in which I demonstrate the questionable audacity to critique the decisions of major TOs. You also may not know me at all. Regardless, EdwinBudding is on vacation for the next few weeks, and you’re stuck with me for a short time. I offer my condolences, but assure you that we’ll get through it together.
With Supernova having ended only a handful of hours prior to me writing this, it makes sense to dedicate this MMM to a retrospective. I was not in attendance at Supernova this year, so I cannot speak on the actual tournament experience, but the bracket and outcome(s) are more than interesting enough on their own, and paint a picture that would have been almost unimaginable this time last year.
Top 8 Finishers
Firstly, it has to be said: Mango is back and better than ever. We have all been hearing “thou shalt not sleep on the kid” since whenever we first picked up a controller, but somehow we keep not listening. After a bizarre and frustrating 2023, the old God has returned, taking two back to back majors through winner’s over Cody Schwab, last year’s world #1. Even more, this showing demonstrated that he can do it even when not on fire, as he managed to topple titans despite visibly flubbing a number of follow ups and struggling to get off the ledge. While it’s far too early to tell, if he keeps up this momentum into the year’s final stretch, a world in which Mango is 2024’s number one player in the world is plausible. He has demonstrated an ability in these last two events to beat pretty much everyone, and so long as he stays focused and aboard his Peloton, it would appear that GOAT season may be here to stay.
Secondly, we need to address the eleph- I mean giant monkey in the room: Junebug made it to winner’s finals of a major as a solo DK player. While he was a beneficiary of the big Zain DQ, he still had an extremely impressive run, defeating Axe and emphatically 3-0ing a red hot Joshman. With runs like these, Junebug and Quang continue to redefine what we thought was possible for a Melee low tier, and the question “Can a solo Donkey Kong win a major” sounds less like a joke and more like a legitimate query every weekend. The craziest part of it all may be that it no longer seems that weird. Reactions are something along the lines of “Oh, Junebug beat Axe and Joshman with DK? That’s funny.” with no massive freakouts, barring Jorge on the mic. He really is just that good.
This leads us to, of course, Cody Schwab, who looked completely untouchable vs everyone not named Mango this weekend. Cody had clearly studied/practiced the DK MU since his loss to Bing, as his set with June was a decisive 3-0…just like all of his other sets vs not Mango at Supernova. While I do agree with both Mango and Cody that they didn’t play their best in their sets, I thought Cody looked phenomenal in all of his other outings, destroying Hbox twice and handling Preeminent and Panda in clean sweeps. While I think it’s now safe to say that Mango is favored over him, I also think it’s quite plausible that Cody may be favored over literally everyone else on Earth, something that I don’t know if you could say for Mango, Zain, or anybody else really.
Nextly, we have Hbox to consider. Hbox is an interesting one to talk about here: On one hand, it is clear from both his gameplay and what he says that he has taken on a renewed interest in reaching the top. On the other hand, it does seem like Cody and Zain remain quite the thorns in his side regardless of any new efforts, and Supernova did nothing but support that assessment. He looked dominant in every other set he played at Supernova, 3-0ing Kodorin, crushing Plup’s Samus, and beating Joshman by a more comfortable margin than usual. However, both sets with Cody were quick 3-0s, which leaves Hbox in a weird place. Traditionally, he has been one of the most impregnable walls in Melee; many players who could have otherwise won tournaments never won a major because they simply could not defeat Hungrybox. Now, Hungrybox finds himself in a similar position, having to deal with not only an increased pool of players that can legitimately challenge him but a few contenders that he cannot seem to gain ground on. Still, betting against Juan’s long term success this far into Melee’s life feels a bit like betting against Mango, and we were all reminded this weekend of the foolishness of doing.
Our next four players are slightly less staple faces to see in top 8 (excepting Junebug), but no less deserving, all having excellent runs.
Firstly, Joshman’s performance was standout, once again showing that he has firmly entered the rarified air of players who can defeat Jmook, and then dispatching Spark in similar fashion. Still, he definitely backslid a little bit in his most recent outing vs Hbox, despite some of the most impressive uairs vs Puff I’ve ever seen. He’s clearly progressed in the MU, but Hbox’s renewed focus could be a problem for the group of players who seem almost able to beat him, but have never quite got there.
As for Magi, we aren’t unaccustomed to seeing her in top 8, but it feels as though lately her appearance there is always preceded by a frustrating loss to Hungrybox or amsa. This time, it instead was preceded by a loss to Mango and a great win over Moky. Still, like with Joshman, I thought she looked better than ever vs Puff, and was simply an unfortunate victim of the clutchgod’s rising powers and RTC rest setups. She is in an interesting place as a competitor where she has demonstrated the capacity to beat everyone but a small number of players at the very top, but the players she cannot seem to overcome are ones that you must defeat to win a major. Time will tell if she is up to the task, but I for one think that the improvements in her gameplay if not yet her results in those head to heads indicate someone who is not content to live as a gatekeeper.
Lastly, we come to the Sheiks, Spark and Krudo, both of whom had excellent runs en route to top 8. Spark’s wins over Lucky, Plup (Samus), and Kodorin were all great, and he only lost to Joshman and then Krudo in the ditto (incredible set, go watch it if you haven’t). Krudo’s run was similarly strong, dispatching Khryke, Quang, and Axe, all in dominant fashion, the last of which is quite noteworthy given that Axe had recently 3-0’d him. Despite similar runs and Krudo narrowly coming out on top in the ditto, both of these players feel like they leave the event in a pretty different place. Spark’s sets with Joshman and Krudo looked quite doable, and more than likely will galvanize him to make adjustments and then similarly deep runs in the near future. By contrast, even though they are a higher caliber of competition, Krudo’s sets against Mango and Cody looked…rough, like the kind of thing where the answer is “get better” rather than just make an adjustment. I take no joy in saying that as a big Krudo fan, but when you play a solid, fundamental style like he does, sometimes that is just the answer.
Outside Top 8
With such (for a full timer) sparse attendance in the last couple of years, you cannot talk about a tournament with Plup in attendance without mentioning him. Deciding to spend the weekend going all Samus on a lark, the multi character virtuoso cruised to 9th place, taking out Khryke, Mot$, and Jmook (!!!), falling only to Spark very narrowly and Hbox very decisively. I will not lie about the Hbox set: it looked hopeless, and I hope Plup switches off Samus next time regardless of how he’s feeling. That said, the Spark set looked supremely winnable, and given Cody’s struggles vs Morsecode is seems plausible to me that Plup might have had a shot even against him. It feels almost unfair that even in 2024 Plup can do things like this, but it just goes to show that no matter how far today’s generation of grinders may push things, the most talented man in Melee will always be able to show up and cut heads, even with a handicap.
Of course, this also leads to a discussion on Jmook: Despite being very obviously the most skilled Sheik to ever play the game, Jmook would appear to have two problems: that he cannot consistently defeat Samus (extremely weird) and that he plays Sheik (extremely understandable). By the latter I mean that he struggles against the very top echelon of Fox players more than you would expect out of a Marth/Fox/Falco of his apparent skill level, not to mention the occasional ICs hiccup. With regards to the Samus issue, I really don’t know what to say: this seems to be an issue that is pretty unique to him among top Sheiks, and it is difficult for me to imagine a world in which a player like him couldn’t reach out to other top Sheiks and solve his issues with the MU. As for the Fox problem, that is a lot harder. I think a lot of people, for many years, believed that the future state for Sheik success in the MU was to hit perfect, extremely long techchase sequences. However, counterplay to this has evolved to such a point that even Jmook is forced to mix in launchers and gimp attempts into his techchase sequences, and it would appear that our vision of the future was ultimately lacking in foresight. I don’t know that another character is the answer, or if Jmook would even be willing to seriously try one (I would be disappointed to see it, personally), but the fact remains that Jmook’s chances of winning majors in 2024 seem more bracket dependent than the rest of the super elite, and will continue to be that way unless he is able to figure out more consistent answers to the best Foxes.
Nextly I arrive at Moky’s performance, falling at 13th despite being looked at as a top 8 shoe in. Moky is someone whose skill level I believe in immensely, and I wouldn’t have been shocked to see him take the tournament, but I also can’t say that this result stuns me. Magi is a player I believe in vs Fox like I believe in death and taxes, and any spacie is vulnerable to being upset by a top Kong (shoutout to Quang) after a disappointing winner’s bracket run. I don’t think this performance indicates anything negative about Moky’s drive, skill, or MU spread, simply a bump in the road for Canada’s finest. Painful, but really just one of those things that happen.
Similarly, Aklo was another likely top 8er that fell short, falling to Axe and Chem in game five sets. Also similar to Moky’s situation, this feels like an unsurprising fate. Very, very few fastfallers will ever be immune to losing to Axe, and Chem’s incredible performances (some vs Aklo himself!) in Northeast regionals should let people know how amazing he is in the ditto. Much like with Moky, I don’t think this run reveals any fundamental issues, and speaks to the strength of the field far more than it does any kind of skid for the king of New York.
Lastly, I will highlight Kacey’s quiet but impressive run to 13th place, beating Zamu, Dawson, and Panda along the way. As a former training partner of her’s, I could not be much less surprised. She has always been someone with the skill that just hasn’t put it together on the big stage yet, and I’m glad a little more of the world got to see what she’s capable of. Furthermore, if she can continue to stay calm and perform under pressure, I would expect to see more runs of this nature, as she has also always had an unusually balanced MU spread for a Falco player.
…And that’s all I have for today’s Supernova review. Obviously, I was not able to cover every or even a majority of notable happenings in the event, and I am truly sorry if I did not get to your or one of your friends’ notable runs. At an event of this size, it simply is not feasible, and I elected to focus on deep bracket happenings that I think the majority of spectators are primarily concerned with.