We’re officially less than a week away from Tipped Off 16, the second supermajor of the year. The entire top five is here, nine of last year’s top ten are in attendance, and even Plup is attending. Yep; in case you forgot, he still happens to play Melee. That’s only scratching the surface though. Outside of last year’s Top 10, each of Axe, Trif, Junebug, and MOF are here, players who have slowly made their way into major contention or seem well on their way there.
The list continues: Krudo, Magi, Salt, Soonsay, Wizzrobe, lloD, SDJ, Ossify, n0ne, Ben, and Panda close out the top twenty five seeds. Fiction, Spark, and KoDoRiN are somehow outside of this group of people, and yet it weirdly doesn’t seem too far off. I went through all the top one hundred seeds and counted over 60 former and current Top 100 players.
In today’s column, I’m going to provide a viewer’s guide of sorts to Tipped Off 16. I’ll be broadly going over what to look out for from Saturday to Sunday. While the specific matches may end up changing throughout the week as people make bracket adjustments, I still think this will provide a good enough starting point for my audience to make sense of this unbelievably deep major.
Sleepers in Round 1 Pools
As early as round one pools, you’re going to see some fierce battles – or hopefully see the ones that are streamed. For the ones that aren’t, just pay attention to the players I mention here; they have a nonzero chance of surprising a ton of people this weekend given their skills and their brackets. I’ve selected four players for each group of pools (A, B, C, and D). To ensure I’m sticking with sleeper picks here, I’m ignoring the top two seeds of each pool.
Let’s start with CAUP, a Georgia Peach that’s perpetually near the top of Georgia’s power rankings and seemingly barely out of contention for Top 100 each year either due to activity or just the luck of the draw. As it stands though, he’s a fierce opponent for Beezy to take on before Top 128. For a fellow non-Top 100 player that fits a similar category of ‘regional legend, nationally unranked,” we have Monday Morning Marth darling Panos, a player I once called to make Top 100 in 2020 before the world proceeded to end, and someone who I think could be a tricky opponent for Komodo.
After these two, you get a former Top 100 Fox player in Redd, whom I think has nonzero upset potential against JChu, and then Reesch, a Kansas Captain Falcon who once beat Ben and nearly beat lloD at Combo Breaker this year. He also made the Top 100 ballot in 2022, and is currently projected to play Wally, a player whose potential ranges from beating the best player in the world to either randomly losing or DQing when he doesn’t feel like competing.
My next four players are in the B wave. I’ll begin with the most recognizable one in Fro116, a surprising three seed New York City Marth who flamed out at Genesis X2 and is projected to play MDVA Fox titan Maelstrom in a coin flip to make Top 128 from the winners side. Meanwhile, there’s Seven, a hidden boss MD/VA Sheik player that’s beaten billybopeep before and nearly spoiled Krudo’s winner’s bracket at Full Bloom 2024; he’s projected to play max.
Justus: Mr. 101 from 2023 SSBMRank, is scheduled to play Mono in another tight set where he’s technically the underdog by seed, but it feels like a tossup. And the last pick here is longtime Top 100 veteran Darkatma, who could be a tough out for 404Cray in another 2v3 seed round one clash.
Speaking of which, I think everyone needs to watch the ultimate 2v3 seed battle in C1 pools: Akir vs. Boyd, a former Wobbling Top 100 Ice Climbers player who’s become regionally active in recent times. This could be an incredibly consequential set for reasons I’ll explain later. DarkHero, the notorious rectangle Marth from Lubbock, Texas, seems to rise from the ashes every now and then to defeat a Top 100 player, and I’m particularly curious to see how he performs vs. Mot$ in the new controller rule set.
On the note of other rectangle players to watch in the rule set, we have the rising DFW Fox star DMT, who is one of the toughest outs that poor Dawson could have drawn this early in the tournament. Lastly, there’s Captain G, a strong Captain Falcon player that seems like a tough matchup for the otherwise rising OG Kid.
The D wave has quite a few killers, but I ended up happy with the four I picked for this section. I’ll start with Stiv, a Sheik/Fox prodigy out of Oregon who seems like a strangely favored ‘underdog’ against the higher seeded Equilateral. Meanwhile, Epoodle vs. Zasa is basically a tossup more than a true underdog vs. classic favorite given the two’s strong regional results over the last year or so.
Another player to look out for is Chicago Yoshi dz, who seems like a scary opponent for the newly active, still strong, but somewhat rusty SluG. And finally, my last player whom I’ll bring up is Simmons, a North Carolina Captain Falcon that historically does really well vs. the field when he travels, but lacks a standout Top 100 win. For what it’s worth, he’s projected to face the mercurial and fairly unpredictable KJH to make it out of pools.
Sleepers in Top 128
Similar to what I did in the next section, I’m going to talk about some fun underdogs in the second phase of the bracket. To make sure that I’m talking about sleeper picks, I am again restricting myself from bringing up the top two projected seeds of each group of R2 Pools.
In Pool 1, we have Rikzz, a guy with a lifetime-level achievement in double eliminating Trif from Valhalla V. I think Lucky is a tough draw for him in R2 pools, but it is a Fox ditto, and before Rikzz beat Trif, I would have said beating Trif was way less doable than beating Lucky in a volatile matchup. After him, I’m going to go with someone whom I think can do quite well if he gets by his tough R1 pools opponent: JChu. He has an interesting series of projected opponents in Soonsay, someone we’ve seen struggle vs. Axe, and Salt, whom JChu has several online matches worth of experience competing against.
On the other side of this group comes Panda, a three seed who has a doable path of Preeminent and Jmook, and then Wally, whose potential reward for beating Reesch (or anyone else) to make Top 128 would be a runback with n0ne from Riptide last year and, if he wins that, a Peach ditto with Trif. Even if Wally is sent to the losers bracket, I think he’s a menace for any fast-faller that runs into him in the bracket. Well, assuming he doesn’t DQ upon seeing Trif’s name in his path, or a Jigglypuff, or something like that.
Pool 2 is weird. We have a very weird assortment of four “definitely still cracked” players who are technically downward trending by results or activity. Beginning with Chem, whom I think has an absurd path of Agent into Hungrybox, his low seed status seems more correlated to his break from competing. He’s still quite good and could be a scary losers bracket opponent. We then have the bizarre low seed of sorts in Plup. How can Plup be an 18 seed? I guess it’s sort of grounded in his relatively bad 2025 results, but it’s also Plup. Surely, he has to beat the Falco players (404Cray and Magi) in his path, right? No? Does he play Fox and Jigglypuff again? Luigi? I have so many questions.
On another note, I genuinely could not tell you which characters Fiction will decide to play against Nicki, but he seems like a formidable opponent (as does Zuppy, Fiction’s prior projected opponent), even if he may not be favored. And lastly comes one of my two picks for breakout stars of Top 128: Zanya. She’s a Top 50-trending player who has a tough, yet doable path of Ben into aMSa for Top 32. In fact, this will be my first big call for a major-defining tournament result: I think Zanya is going to beat both players and make Top 32 from the winners side.
My second big call comes up next in Pool 3, where Akir, fresh off barely surviving Boyd, will get his revenge on moky from last year and then beat either draw he has between TheRealThing or Faust. With respect to these players, who are favored by the numbers, I couldn’t help myself. Akir is an extremely fun pick and someone whom I genuinely think has Top 50-level talent. A less fun, though more obvious, pick is Wizzrobe, who has a path of Dawson (or DMT) into Krudo for Top 32.
In a strange parallel with his fellow Sheik player Plup, Spark has a Falco bracket of Chickenman400 into Mang0 for Top 32. Given the consistency of matchups to expect this early in bracket, and Spark’s recent success, he has a good chance to have a big run here. I’ll pick him to take down Mang0 as my third big upset of Top 128. And lastly, we have the criminally-slept-on OkayP. He’s had a last seven months worth of results that legitimately look like the resume of a Top 25 player. As of right now, he has Ossify into Aklo: hard opponents that are frankly closer to being peers to OkayP than gatekeepers. I’ll call him as my fourth big upset pick and say he beats Ossify (though falls short of beating Aklo).
It was difficult to settle on just four people in Pool 4, but I ended up satisfied with the ones I chose. Confusingly though, two of them come in the same cluster: Grab and SDJ. Grab has a tough round one pools opponent in Typhoon, but if he gets by him, I think him vs. MOF is going to be really close. Unfortunately though, with respect to Grab, even he would tell you that he would be unfavored against SDJ, who is my pick to leave in winners. They are incredibly good vs. both Ice Climbers and Marth; honestly, it caught me off guard to see them seeded so lowly.
Of the next cluster of four, I limited myself to just one player, but I like Zasa’s chances of defeating both Axe and whoever comes out on top in the KoDoRiN/SluG match (and maybe even dz). She is extremely well-rounded in her matchup strengths and I think she has what it takes to beat both Axe’s secondary Fox and the Pikachu, as well as push her next opponent to the limit. Lastly, to end Top 128, we have a bat-shit insane quarter of Junebug vs. Gahtzu and lloD vs. Colbol. I could genuinely see any of these four making it out to Top 32 in winners. You know what though? It’s Tipped Off. With the home crowd behind this player, and the power of Survivor 50’s announcement, I have to go with Colbol makes his grand return here, defeating lloD and either of Junebug or Gahtzu to make it out.
Doubles:
The first thing to note about doubles here: no Cody and Jmook. Because these two are prioritizing singles here, this has suddenly become a much more interesting fight for first place. Which of the attending duos can best position themselves as the next up to challenge Cody/Jmook at some future tournament?
Obviously, Axe/aMSa are the default favorites to win the tournament, as they finished in second place at each of the last two majors they attended. After them comes Krudo/Panda, a team that’s lately suffered through a slump in results, but could be due to a rebound, and it’s worth noting this is the last team to actually take a set from Cody/Jmook. With that said, I’m not going with either of these two teams to win. My winner pick is the double Fox squad of Zuppy/Mot$. Both in the team composition itself, as well as their combined doubles experience, they match up really well with the top seeds and are poised to make a huge run.
Beneath these three leading contenders, you have a group of interesting teams. Hungrybox/XIF is a fun old-school Jigglypuff/Peach composition that I’m curious to see here. MOF/lloD is a strange team composition of Ice Climbers/Peach that I haven’t seen in quite some time. I have no idea how Salt/nut will perform, but they’re worth noting too. Then we get into Drephen/Boyd, a longtime team that’s done regionally well, yet hasn’t ever had a true major breakout. Closing out the top eight seeds is a bizarre Equilateral/Akir combo. What’s the composition here? Double Marth? Marth/DK? Marth/Doc? Who knows?
Outside the top eight seeds, here are some potentially interesting sleeper threats. If I had to pick one, I think the double Fox team of lexor/Justus could catch some people off guard. Darkatma/salami also seem like a great wild card, as do the spacies duo of TheRealThing/YungWaff. However, I’d be remiss if I did not mention Georgia’s very own Wills/Panko. This is a very good regional duo that shouldn’t be slept on and (hopefully) will have quite a bit of home state support.
Top 32
Top 32 onward is where the bracket will get really juicy, particularly. In my opinion, these are the most fun matches of the whole tournament. For this section, I’ve broken down Top 32 into clusters, but unlike previous sections, I’m going in a mildly different direction. Rather than sticking with the pure projected bracket, I’m instead using assumptions from my previous predictions to project the results on who will make it out of each cluster on the winners side.
In the first quarter of winners, we have a very Cody-favored path bracket. Assuming he gets here, Cody will have Salt into Jmook or Trif, with all three opponents being ones he’s played before and typically beaten without breaking too much of a sweat. Maybe the new and improved Trif could be tricky, as Trif was for Mang0 at Genesis X2, but I think Cody has it in the bag.
I would not feel that way about Zain in his projected path of MOF into the winner of Axe and Junebug. That would seem like torture. However, I am saying “would” for a reason. As I mentioned before, in my predicted bracket, Zain will instead have a much more favorable path of SDJ into the winner of Zasa versus Colbol. Suddenly, what looked like a headache-inducing portion of the tournament will turn into a much more manageable series of opponents, and Zain will make it out.
Cluster 3 is where none of Hungrybox, Magi, Nicki, or aMSa hold the cards for what will happen. Instead, it’s the people in the previous round: Plup, Zanya, Fiction, and Zuppy. If all of the favorite seeds make it, I think aMSa will probably make it out, but I’m going to guess that it won’t be so simple. My final call is that Plup and Zanya make it here. Nicki ends the Zanya winners bracket dream run, Hungrybox barely holds on to defeat Plup, and then Hungrybox survives Nicki to escape.
Our final quarter of Top 32 may appear like a Mang0 path: with Aklo into the winner of moky and Krudo, these are all Fox players or practice partners. But I have learned my lesson from countless columns worth of “this is such a great Mang0 bracket!” He’s not here in our predicted bracket; instead, it’s Spark. As a matter of fact, I just recalled that moky won’t be here; Akir will, and Wizzrobe will take Krudo’s spot: That leaves us Akir vs. Wizzrobe and Spark vs. Aklo to make it to Top 8. In this scenario, my guess is that Aklo beats Spark, Wizzrobe beats Akir, and then Wizzrobe beats Aklo to get into top eight. Honestly, I’m looking at this bracket again, and I think I’m going to be proven wrong when Mang0 finally does well, but it’s too late.
From that point onward, we have the top eight, and before that, a bunch of losers bracket matches. Because the losers bracket could change a ton though, and the possibilities are practically endless, I’m going to cut right to the chase.
My Pick
Given everything we know about this event, it seems like a Cody Schwab victory in the making. While he tends to sometimes brain fart here and there with his major showings, this is a really strong bracket for him. Having Zain on the same side is not necessarily the greatest, but there’s always the chance that Zain’s Hell Bracket manifests. In fact, even if Zain gets by it, I think Cody remains a very scary opponent for him too.
Who else comes to mind when you think of the toughest possible Cody opponents? Aura? He’s not here, and it was one set. Joshman? He’s not here either. It’s probably Mang0, and he’s on the other side of the bracket. Soonsay could be a little tricky, but in addition to Soonsay’s own path being difficult (JChu into Salt), Cody’s looked pretty beastly in Fox dittos lately. Maybe it’s Nicki, but again – Nicki is stuck on the other side of the bracket, with a murderers row of Ice Climbers-slayers in his path.
What’s especially interesting is what this win would do for Cody. By winning Tipped Off 16, he would have his third consecutive major win. In addition to that, he’d pass Leffen for all-time major wins and have his fourth supermajor win ever, surprisingly one mere supermajor short of Zain himself for career supermajors. If Cody wasn’t the greatest Fox player ever before, he would be upon taking home the gold at this event. Prepare the duckboats; Cody’s going to win.