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Monday Morning Marth: August 26

Edwin Budding
Published August 26, 2024

Invitationals have a special place in the Smash community, whether as far back as the MLG days, Smash Summit, or even, technically speaking, a Nintendo invitational. Over the last couple years, they’ve continued to exist in the scene, either on a regional level or as part of multiple circuits. In some ways, you could even consider The Match a two-person invitational where the attendees played in a slightly different rule set. Regardless, all this is to say I’m beyond excited for the Eggdog Invitational, which is coming up this weekend.

It’s easy to compare this event to Smash Summit because of the voting compendium and invitational format. Nobody can deny Summit’s influence over the Eggdog Invitational, but I think it’s worth viewing this event a little differently, because viewing it as another “Summit” doesn’t quite accurately capture its spot as a major invitational. To me, given the Galint Melee Open (the last-chance-qualifier attached to this event), this event seems more in line with the Ludwig ones. It’s a hybrid tournament run by an influencer (broadly speaking) with cash to spare and a lot of love for Melee.

Full disclosure: I am a Patron of Eggdog Esports, and its members are Patrons of Melee Stats. I can’t claim to be totally unbiased here, but this team has put in a lot of work to bring forward a very cool tournament for the scene. Yes, it’s being presented in a way familiar to us, but I think it will be different in a few other ways (presentation style, the people commentating the event, the format itself, etc.), and that’s a good thing.

In today’s column, I’m going to keep it simple and dedicate all my time to talking about this tournament. I’ll briefly cover who to look out for at the LCQ, before then diving into each of the sixteen invitees. For each one, I’ll discuss their prospective matchups at this tournament, how their group stage performances may shake up, and finally come to a verdict on whether I want to “buy” or “sell” their stock for this particular event. If I am “buying” a player, it means I believe they will outperform their perceived expectations for this event; if I am “selling,” it means the opposite.

Galint Melee Open Contenders

Soonsay stands out as one of the obvious favorites for the Galint Melee Open. His top 10 debut on the summer rank places him in a prestigious all-time group of players, as does his third place run at GOML earlier this year. Assuming Soonsay makes it to the knockout stage – where each of the LCQ’s Top 4 hand-pick the last placers of the invitees from the group stages – he will match up quite well with basically any Fox in the world. As a matter of fact, he would likely be a huge favorite by default over nearly any realistic opponent. Getting to the final bracket, however, is enough of a hassle to where I’m not going to dive into every possible permutation of Soonsay’s final performance. For now, the particulars of whether or not he makes an insane run to winners finals doesn’t interest me. We know he’s good and can beat anyone.

Speaking of people who have finished top three at a major, Junebug might be the one opponent in the LCQ who could be favored over Soonsay in a head-to-head. With that said though, British Columbia is strangely good against Donkey Kong, a large part due to MojoMonkey, a longtime player, though now inactive, being a prominent figure in the community. I don’t think it would happen, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Junebug found himself struggling a little more than he might have expected vs the region’s power ranked players. After all, it was a little over a year ago when Unruly sent Quang out of Battle of BC 5. He, along with Elliot and Polo, could be especially scary outs.

Clearly so could KoDoRiN, recent “friend of Mang0” and no stranger to fighting Donkey Kong. The rest of his matchup spread is very strong too; I like his chances against any of the top spacies and see him as particularly difficult to upset in this format. He feels like one of the more surefire locks to make the Eggdog Invitational and to follow up on that with a good showing in the knockout stage. I’m especially interested to see how KoDoRiN performs because of his evolving relationship with Smash. At the same time as his shifting priorities, he’s continued to be regionally active and quietly had one of his best performances ever at a Star League where he beat each of Jmook, Fiction, and Joshman to win the event.

Another present member of the “Mang0’s friend” crew is S2J, our fourth leading contender for reaching the knockout stage. When I saw his rank for the summer, I did a double take. Granted, his results right now justify that spot, and yet it’s still shocking to see a perpetual Top 25 player have such a relatively low (or high, really) number next to his name on a ranking. Simultaneously though, it feels a bit misleading as far as predicting his future performance is concerned. S2J tends to come back from stretches of inactivity or slumps with outstanding showings. Maybe it could happen with dominant play through the LCQ and the knockout stage. A small part of me believes S2J could still upset Zain, though it’s been quite some time since he did it.

Without diving into each of them, I’ll briefly mention other heavy hitters in the LCQ. There’s Goodie, an Australian Fox who beat Dawson earlier this year and has gradually been making her case for Top 100. Next is my breakout pick of 2024, Graves, a Washington Falco who seems poised for a massive national performance any minute now, and then British Columbia’s very own Elliot, who has scored numerous Top 100 wins over the years, yet curiously has never made Top 100, mostly due to national inactivity. Frankly, you could say the same for BC’s Captain Falcon and Fiction-defeating legend Polo as well. Also present are Stiv and Zeo: two Top 100 players from last year who have had a bit of a downturn in performances – and in Stiv’s case, a character switch – in 2024.

Now that this is out of the way, we can get into the fun part. In rough order of players, broadly by seed and how I see their potential outcomes at this tournament, I am going to be naming my eight “buys” and eight “sells” for the Eggdog Invitational.

Number 16: Chango

Okay, don’t get mad at me, Pacific Northwest. I too believe that Chango is a legend. In fact, it’s not totally impossible for him to defeat someone within this group of players. He did beat Zamu just a couple years ago, playing a small, yet significant role in aMSa’s miraculous The Big House 10 victory. There might be a world where instead of his current pool, Chango’s in one with Trif or Nicki, and he goes beast mode. Unfortunately, his actual draw is totally unforgiving: Mang0, Aklo, and Spark. Although it’s true that the unusually high caliber of competition here alone is brutal on its own, this specific pool is uniquely rough. With respect to Chango’s skill at Melee, someone has to finish last here, and whoever is coming into the knockout stage of the event is going to likely be another brutal opponent that matches up favorably against him.

Now, the nice thing is that this makes Chango the ultimate underdog. As a result, there is basically no reason to root against him. Imagine if Chango suddenly just goes hamburgers vs. Spark or someone else and then is possessed by the spirit of Hungrybox to upset yet another top seed in the final bracket, like moky or something. The Pacific Northwest would go absolutely crazy, and it would be an incredible moment. One can dream.

Verdict: Sell.

Number 15: Snap

Snap is a massive underdog heading into this event. He’s got a very cool story too, as he started playing two decades ago and has practically grown up through Melee. This year in particular has been his peak, coming with a ton of travel and a win over Zoey. That might speak to some sleeper potential that Snap has as a Fox ditto specialist. I think it’s great that Snap is here. If Snap Gang were a thing, I’d be Snap Gang. That’s it. I’m making it a thing.

Obviously though, Snap has a tall order ahead of him for defeating people at this event. As a matter of fact, his draw of Cody, moky, and Trif in the same pool is approximately the equivalent of dropping a Dark Souls newcomer right into Anor Londo against those two fucking asshole gargoyles. Except in this case, there’s three of them, and one of them can – and will – float at an unreachable part of the stage for minutes at a time. Honestly though, given how relatively unknown Snap is to most viewers, his “stock” is low enough for this event to where even taking a set or putting up a fight vs. a vastly superior opponent would be a win of its own. If he went 0-3 in group stages, and upset a peer in the knockout stage, he’d have already exceeded expectations. Perhaps a top seed DQs before the event, Soonsay or KoDoRiN take their spot in the groups stages, Snap loses his pools match, beats someone in the knockout stage, and then goes on to defeat Spark or Chango in a wacky final bracket. It is admittedly a lot to ask for. Screw it.

Verdict: Buy

Number 14: Lowercase hero

Lowercase hero, who I will be referencing for the rest of this column as Henry, is one of the most beloved players from the Midwest. Hailing from Wisconsin, he’s someone you’ve probably seen on stream of a regional somewhere, battling Ben or Blue or, really, any of the Midwest top dogs. Last year was Henry’s long-anticipated national breakout, as he made Top 100 for the first time. His results this year have continued to be strong and warrant consideration for Top 100.

With this in mind  I can’t quite see him making an upset in group stages. There’s little room for error against the Fox-main-buzzsaws which are his opponents (Zain, Wizzrobe, and Aura). That group, in my opinion, is worse than Snap’s for Henry’s chances. I do, however, anticipate Henry making his presence known at this tournament, in one way or another. He has a big personality that instantly endears him to anyone who’s ever discussed Melee with him. Personally, I’d love to hear him commentate, if he wanted to do it. However, he has a long road ahead of him. Unlike Snap, Henry is a more known commodity too, meaning that while he’s a similar underdog, he’s not that much of one to warrant a buy here since Henry has more note-worthy stock. Is this bullshit reasoning by me? Perhaps. Look, I had to pick one of them to buy or sell.

Verdict: Sell

Number 13: Nicki

He might shy away or roll his eyes at the title of “face of EU Melee,” but Nicki has done everything to gain that reputation for himself. Alongside his results within Europe, he has led the continent’s official rankings and offers coaching for prospective students in the region. There’s good reason for why so many people across the EU scene have come to love Nicki. With enough time, I think the whole community will do the same.

Part of what makes Nicki such an exciting competitor here is the fact that he plays Ice Climbers. Given how rare it is to see a top-level representative of this character at a major (outside of MOF), I’m curious to see how Nicki fares against the best of the best. We saw him come heartbreakingly close vs Zain; is it possible that Nicki could defeat Cody or Mang0 in the same matchup? It sure seems so. At the same time though, Nicki will have to get through Hungrybox, aMSa, and Zamu in pools to get a shot. This might sound like total death, and it kind of is, but facing two of his hardest opponents (the first two) could weirdly work out for Nicki. Even assuming he loses, Nicki “just” needs to defeat and out-place Zamu to guarantee himself a spot in the final bracket. If he can do it, he’ll be guaranteed to not play Hungrybox or aMSa for at least two rounds, which would give him a greater chance of a favorable draw (like Spark, any of the spacies, or even Zain). This is no small order. However, I like Nicki’s upside enough at this event to where even if he goes 0-3, he could survive the knockout stage and be in a position to make a huge upset in the last bracket.

Verdict: Buy.

Number 12: Zamu

Zamu’s Fox ditto prowess makes her an especially intriguing prospect for this event. While she really can – and does – lose and defeat anyone in there world, it’s worth noting the extraordinary nature of her matchup expertise. She has basically defeated every active Fox at one point or another over the last year: In the tiniest possibility, Zamu might get a draw of Aklo, Cody, and moky after going positive in pools – and then finally hold off Cody to win Eggdog Invitational. It’s an awesome alternative universe when you think about it.

There are other 25 characters in the game, however, and Zamu’s group stages involve a Yoshi, a Jigglypuff, and an Ice Climbers with zero reason to pull out his Fox vs. Zamu. This isn’t to say that Zamu has no chance of defeating these opponents; it does, however, diverge from her typical strengths. Her potential draws vs. each of the top LCQ people, as well as the top Fox players at this event, are great enough for me to keep her higher than lower on this list, but literally any other combination of players would have been better for her than this one. Although perhaps she hits up Michael and dz for some secret sauce.

Verdict: Sell

Number 11: Aura

Hot take: Aura is closer to being the best Peach in the world than you might think. Although he doesn’t have a standout win like Trif (Jmook and aMSa), he basically has a bunch of strong regional results that point to him being Top 25, with some coming after the ranking period. I would go ahead and state that he is favored or even with every single player beneath the top seven seeds of this event. Maybe Aklo could be hard, but Aura has previous wins in the year over Zamu, Joshman, and Spark.

In fact, have we gotten a chance to see Aura vs Cody or Mang0 or moky? Nope. That makes this matchup so fascinating. Whenever we’ve seen any of those players face a Peach that isn’t Trif, it tends to be very dicey since Peach really isn’t that common at this level. Whether it’s Cody’s historic battles with Polish (and apparently Wally), Mang0 dropping a set to Sirmeris, or moky vs lloD, this is just not something we really see that much. When we do see it, it’s anything but a cakewalk. We won’t even know what Aura vs aMSa could look like. My spicy call here: Aura not only makes the top eight – he takes down a top seed in the process.

Verdict: Buy

Number 10: Aklo

Earlier this year, Aklo debuted in the Top 10 for the first time. Naturally, he had to make a few adjustments to his game to ensure long-term growth to the next level, and it carried growing pains. With that said though, he’s fresh off an amazing showing at Warehouse War and won a regional recently. I would consider Aklo fairly hot heading into this invitational.

His matchup spread here is pretty good too. Although I think each of the top seven seeds enter their sets against him as presumptive favorites, Aklo has that same type of status vs. everyone within this group, either by virtue of his overall skill or in the specific head-to-head history. This is a good event for him to show that he doesn’t merely have the hot hand; that he’s ready to jump into major contention. And remember: he basically just has to beat Snap to be safe, and Spark, though tricky, is still an opponent Aklo usually beats more often than not. Zain and Mang0 remain daunting obstacles, but maybe Aklo finally snags a set over one of them at this event to show a long-term level up.

Verdict: Buy

Number 9: Spark

Spark’s in an interesting position for this event. Based on what we have seen from his results, there’s no one attending this event who he simply cannot beat. Granted, something similar could be said in the other direction too – that Spark could drop a set to anyone here. Will we see the same Spark that showed up at Pat’s House 4 en route to a historic major breakout, or is the one who lost to Juicebox at Genesis? Could we see both?

In terms of his matchups against the top seeds, I’ve been especially interested in Spark’s rivalry against Aklo. The two have gone back and forth in recent times, with Spark obliterating Aklo at Eggdog Scramble 2, and Aklo coming out on top in their next two sets. To be clear, I find this particular rivalry fascinating for any event; for this one though, it has unique stakes because they’re in the same group for invitees. The expected result is, in all likelihood, that Mang0 sweeps, Aklo and Spark both beat Chango, and then Aklo and Spark play a set to determine who has the higher seed for the final bracket.  If this happens, then both of them will be safe from the knockout stage. However, the difference between seeds could basically determine whether or not one of them has to play someone totally daunting like Zain or a more favorable opponent. It doesn’t sound like much, but these types of small differences can not make or break one person’s bracket – they can straight up change the outcome of a whole tournament.

Verdict: Buy

Number 8: Trif

It feels so strange to say this, but Trif is right  outside the cusp of major contention. Save for unusual exceptions within Europe, none of whom are here, Trif just doesn’t really lose to players ranked significantly beneath him. His recent wins over aMSa and Jmook are signs that he’s capable of beating the best of the best too.

With that said though, this is actually quite a difficult selection of players for Trif. aMSa is Trif’s only favorable matchup in the top brass, and everybody else he faces in this group are either favorites by default (Zain, Cody, Hungrybox, Wizzrobe, moky) or people we’ve never seen Trif consistently defeat (Aklo, Mang0). Nothing is impossible of course; maybe Trif ascends to a new level of spacie-slaying and defeats aMSa as well. Personally though, I don’t see it. His pool for this event – moky, Cody, and Snap – might be good enough for Trif to avoid the knockout stage, but it’s probably not good enough to give him a seed that lets him dodge horrendous matchups like Hungrybox. Hell, if Trif dominates the group stage, it still might turn out that way.

Verdict: Sell

Number 7: Wizzrobe

Wizzrobe has a lot going for him. We’ve seen more of him this year than usual, and save for a dropped regional to Ben, he’s shown that he deserves to be in the conversation for major contention. It’s almost trite to say that a Top 10 player is “back” when he hasn’t really left – but because you all know what I mean when I say Wizzrobe is “back,” I’m going to say it anyway. Wizzrobe is back. He’s as active as he was before his health issues popped up, attending majors and regionals alike, and giving us reason to think he can win a major (although, to be clear, CEO is not a major).

However, more than his mere consistency, Wizzrobe has one particularly unique element to his matchup spread: he can defeat Zain. It wasn’t long ago when Wizzrobe nearly eliminated Zain from top eight at GOML – it’s hard to see this as something that wouldn’t drastically help his chances of winning the tournament. Granted, it would likely require a very particular path that allows Wizzrobe to avoid his three toughest opponents in each of the attending top spacies (Cody, moky, and Mang0). And frankly, it’s probably not that great to face Zain so early in group stages, where a win over him may not carry the same value as it would in the final bracket. Wizzrobe feels like a strong contender for someone who could have a great event in terms of head-to-heads, but maybe not a placement that matches the results. Still; if Wizzrobe has a high seed in the final bracket as a result of going 3-0 in pools, he could benefit from it with a bracket like a lower seed into Trif into Hungrybox into aMSa to enter grands from winner’s side.

Verdict: Buy

Number 6: moky

If you just looked at his last few performances, you might think there’s good reason to feel doomer about moky’s chances of winning a major. But in all honesty, his recent struggles don’t really have anything to do with impacting how he may perform at this tournament. For what it’s worth, his matchup spread here is actually fairly strong when you look at moky’s long-term trends vs. these opponents.

It’s easy to point to Zain as a huge obstacle. But you could say that for almost everyone in the world. With moky, you have someone who usually performs consistently well vs worse players in familiar matchups, consistently defeats aMSa (despite losing their last set), and has edged out, been competitive with, or has gained ground on within the top echelon of play (sans Zain). I would bet quite a bit of money on moky winning a major in the next twelve months; for it to happen though, he does need to finally beat (or dodge) Zain. Keeping that in mind, if you can get favorable odds, try your hand at betting on moky in their next set. Now’s the best time to do it.

Verdict: Buy

Number 5: Hungrybox

Do not be fooled by Hungrybox’s attempt to turn the Detox in another direction. Although I commend anyone’s newfound motivation to take their health seriously, it is separate from Hungrybox’s ambitions as a Melee competitor. In that regard, the vibes are not good. Contrary to what his rank may indicate, Hungrybox has the single worst odds out of any of the top seven seeds. He has lost each of his previous sets vs. Zain, Cody, Mang0, Wizzrobe, aMSa, moky, and even Aklo. These aren’t just stray losses; his peers are slowly surpassing him.

To say something nice about his chances, this has happened before. In the middle of 2017, Hungrybox’s Jigglypuff got kicked around like a rag doll by each of Mang0, Leffen, Mew2King, Armada, and even Plup’s then-new Fox, and the prospect of him winning a major briefly seemed like it was going the other way. What happened after that, of course, was Hungrybox straight up bulldozing the opposition over the course of eight months, with one of the greatest primes in Melee history. Could that happen here again? I doubt it. Something needs to fundamentally change.

Verdict: Sell

Number 4: aMSa

This is the first time we’re seeing aMSa since Tipped Off, and I’m fascinated to see how he performs. From what we’ve seen of him this year, we have no reason to believe he isn’t the favorite in a set against either of this tournament’s top two seeds, which obviously helps his chances of winning the event. He’s also been extremely difficult to upset, with Trif, another Top 10 player, as his “worst” loss for 2024. In all likelihood, when aMSa plays someone in the bottom half of this event, he will most likely crush them.

The problem, however, is that Cody and Trif are attending this tournament, and they are two opponents whom he certainly does not crush in any capacity. Although aMSa’s victory over moky shows that he isn’t nearly as doomed vs. his toughest opponents as the numbers show, it’s still hard to believe their long-term head-to-head dynamic has fundamentally changed too. I feel similarly about Wizzrobe, a long-time thorn in aMSa’s side, and another opponent who is going to be present at this event. Although none of them are currently in his pool, it might actually be a bad thing. Due to the format of this event ensuring no repeat matches for two rounds of the final bracket, it seems likelier than not that aMSa will have to play multiple personal demons. On the plus side, aMSa has the rare strength of being able to beat Zain, which immediately skyrockets his chances of winning a major. But can he get to him late enough in the bracket to where he can win? Or will he beat him too early and then immediately run into a personal kryptonite?

Verdict: Sell

Number 3: Mang0

Remember what I said about Hungrybox before – that the vibes were terrible? That’s the opposite case for Mang0. Heading into this event, only Zain and aMSa stick out as opponents you could argue are favored over him. While he dropped his only set to moky for 2024, has lost to Hungrybox before, and certainly has been caught off guard by a player similar enough to Aura in stature (Sirmeris), I find it unlikely that any of these players are currently trending positive against him in particular. Nicki could be scary, as Mang0’s mixed record vs. the Ice Climbers makes him a bit more vulnerable than you’d think, but as I talked about before with Nicki, that just about applies equally to many of Mang0’s peers. By itself, whooping Cody so thoroughly boosts his chances.

With that said, Cody is just one player. And historically speaking, three-peats aren’t too common. Since the reign of Hungrybox – and in a much weaker competitive field – only Zain and Cody have won three or more majors in a row. Looking before that, the last time Mang0 won three consecutive majors was 2014, when he won Kings of Cali, Evo, and The Big House. The only other people to win three or more consecutive majors in the SSBMRank era are Hungrybox, Armada, and Leffen. With respect to Mang0’s incredible steps forward, beating Cody four times makes his dominance a little disproportionate. To his credit, Mang0 finally beat Zain after 11 sets too, and yet even the biggest Mang0 fan would tell you that wasn’t the expected result. All in all, I think Mang0’s here to stay in the number one race, but for this event, I don’t buy that he’s as overwhelmingly dominant vs. the top echelon as his recent victories seem to show. Although who knows; maybe he is and I haven’t realized it.

Verdict: Sell

Number 2: Zain

Zain’s in an interesting spot for this tournament. The current world No. 1, greatest player of the modern generation, and arguably rising GOAT contender just hasn’t been present. Since his fifth place showing at Tipped Off 15, Zain hasn’t competed at a big tournament. If we look at the head to head numbers for this event, he’s almost certainly the favorite – with aMSa and Cody as his sole losing records over the last twelve months. But do the numbers account for this brief decline in activity? In these last couple of months, CEO 2024, Smash Factor 11, Warehouse War 4, and Supernova 2024 have featured at least each one of Zain’s peers at the top echelon. Even aMSa had time for a warm-up at a Battle Gateway. I suppose Zain recently entered a nearby event with Jigglypuff.

While it’s not too uncommon for top players to take breaks from seriously competing, a number one contender being away during an otherwise active season of events usually leads to a slight drop in performance. For example, Cody Schwab, following wins at Double Down and Phantom 2022, came back three months later for a third place showing at The Big House 10, which was then was followed up by a half-year slump. Another case in recent times is Leffen, whose respective wins at Battle of BC 4 and LACS 5 were followed up by returns to Earth of different magnitude. Anyone can look at the numbers and pick Zain to win this tournament because it’s the easy thing to do. I’m going in a different direction though and say that he doesn’t win his first event back in a while. Unless your name is Adam Lindgren, the year is 2015, and one of your biggest rivals just got deported from the United States (or the scene has, like, two real majors a year), it’s most likely too tall of an order.

Verdict: Sell

Number 1: Cody Schwab

Cody tends to perform better in invitationals than not. Obviously, both of his Summit victories come to mind, but this was the case even when he went to his first Summit and had a huge loser’s run to fourth place. The only invitationals I’ve ever seen Cody under-perform at are the LSI, where a truly cursed bracket led to an exit at ninth place due to Zain/Mang0, and Scuffed World Tour, an unusual one-day double elimination bracket of 16 people. I try to avoid arm chair psychology in this column, but I actually believe that Cody tends to thrive both when he knows his opponents ahead of time and when the inherent format of an event allows a wider margin of error.

This may sound counter-intuitive, butCody’s pool for this tournament is pretty hard – and confusingly, it may actually be a good thing. If Cody loses to both moky and Trif here, but beats Snap, and Snap loses all three sets as expected from the pool, Cody will still make the final bracket, and he will essentially be guaranteed to not play moky or Trif again. He may technically have a more difficult path due to entering as a lower seed, and I don’t think Cody should actively try to throw sets in pools, but who else here can beat him? Only Mang0 has had a positive record vs. Cody all year among players here. In a weird way, playing two of his toughest matchups early may actually work out great for Cody. As it stands, I’m pretty bullish on him and think this event is structured in a way with a very specific field and format that plays to his strengths. He’s my pick to win the Eggdog Invitational.

Verdict: Buy

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