One of the most exciting regional tournaments of 2023 was Luminosity Makes Moves Miami. Although it wasn’t a major, it featured a nice crew of Top 25 to Top 50 talent. The event’s grand finals, an electrifying showdown between Salt and Zuppy, furthermore put the tournament on the map. Something similar could be said about the event’s National Arcadian, though this portion was confusingly held in a separate bracket.
Enter Luminosity Makes Moves Miami 2024: an event that certainly seems to be quite a bit bigger, has undeniably reached major status, and has a ton on the line. Zain could add yet another major to his annual trophy case, further seal the deal on his No. 1 spot for the year, and even pass Ken for all-time major victories. Mang0, however, can make the race a little more interesting by succeeding here, and Hungrybox could finally snap his streak of not winning majors. Add Aklo, Jmook, moky, Wizzrobe, and Soonsay to the mix – this is going to be a great event.
In today’s column, I’m going to do my best to preview the main event. While I do not have the official bracket for the event finalized yet, I’m nonetheless explaining how the field shapes up against each other, and I am going off what I believe to be a “close enough” look at how the tournament will shape out. In similar fashion to what I have done previously this year, I’ll be running 100 simulations of LMMM 2024 – not quite as many as 1000, but just enough to give us an idea of what’s coming up.
Methodology
Most of you know my way of simulating tournaments – essentially what I do is gather up wins and losses among players throughout the year and create a large head-to-head matrix in which I use Elo to calculate each player’s respective win probabilities against each other. For this tournament though, because it’s fairly smaller, with a ton of players that don’t actually play that much against each other, there were quite a few glaring holes in my initial calculations. As an example, I just don’t really buy that Zain should beat MOF 94 percent of the time. The two recently had a nailbiter at Riptide, and Zain similarly had another tight set with Nicki, an Ice Climbers player who at least is in the same area code of skill as MOF.
If I had more time, I probably would have just done a bunch of math and tried to build a more in-depth win probability calculator. But in the interest of time, I just asked my dear friend s-f – a person who literally follows Melee results as a part-time job – to help me sort this out. Is it particularly stats-based? No, of course not. In these types of discussions, however, I find that an approach that mixes data and vibes tends to deliver the most understandable results. And when you think about it, a lot of what we consider data-driven still has some element of vibes. Or, bare minimum, a good articulation of those vibes.
Once this was done though, I once again built the makings of a Top 16 bracket in Google Sheets. I then, rather than giving losers of the top sixteen rounds a bye, seeded them against players I collectively considered “Top 32 Seeds,” in reference to their status as being lower than the top seeds, but higher than everyone else. Following the advice of s-f again, I set static win probability ranges for each of my projected Top 16 seeds, and set these “Top 32 Seed” players in the loser’s bracket. I then simulated the event 100 times. With that information in mind, here’s my breakdown of the seixteen
NOTE: I wrote this column before the TOs published the final bracket for this event. I will make notes of them as needed throughout the column; the first one being this: MOF is not seeded in the Top 16 any more.
Seeds 13 to 16
In general, this is likely going to be a tough bracket for Ben. Although he’s got strong upset potential against Wizzrobe and, as a top Sheik player, he poses a threat to Junebug, there’s a bigger problem here: the number of scary Fox players. Each of Lucky, Fiction, Chem, and Panda are trending high, with many of them having a strong history of performing well against Sheik too. MOF and Krudo are more manageable and people Ben has beaten in the past, but it’s unlikely he’ll play them until the losers bracket given the likely bracket at this tournament. In my simulations, Ben only made the top eight 15 times. Also, he has to play Zain first, which is basically death.
We then get into an interesting player to look out for here in South Florida’s hometown defender MOF. Funnily enough, she is one of the only people in my simulations to actually win the event, having done it in three simulations. With that said, most of this has to do with her relatively favorable matchups against Zain (25 percent) and Mang0 (30 percent) as underdogs. She’s similarly plucky vs. Junebug and Krudo (60 percent). It will be difficult for her to consistently perform well when she’s losing vs. everyone else. More often than not (as in 65 times), she missed the top eight, and that was with Mang0 as her projected round one opponent in top sixteen.
NOTE: MOF actually ended up not being seeded in the top sixteen. She’s currently the seventeen seed, meaning that she will play Ben for a shot against Zain. This, undeniably, will kill her chances in comparison to the bracket I initially projected for her. Salt is also attending this tournament, meaning that I actually missed out on another player. My bad here; for what it’s worth, if you replaced MOF with Salt within this range or higher, my guess is that Salt would be more consistent, but struggle more against the top four seeds of this event. I do not think this would translate to Salt winning multiple times, but her median placement would likely be higher.
Meanwhile, Panda never won an edition of LMMM, but he finished in second place twice, third place once, and, including these performances, in the top eight 29 times. That has to do with his relatively volatile chances against his fellow fast fallers, as well as Junebug and Jmook, the latter of whom he actually beat earlier this year. While he hasn’t defeated Hungrybox since 2023, I still give him a solid shot against him in a rematch – maybe 25 to 30 percent or so.
The last of the players in this group is Chem. He’s coming straight out of a strong showing at Wavelength and another deep run at The Function 4. Given previous wins in the year over Aklo and SluG, as well as his long-time prowess in those matchups, he has decent upset potential against each of Aklo and MOF. Against everyone else though, they seem like they are favored. Even the ones where the matchups where he has his best shots, like Krudo or Junebug or Lucky, are coin flips at best.
NOTE: Chem is now seeded to play Mang0 in top sixteen. Respectfully, RIP.
Seeds 9 to 12
Remember the tweet Fiction made about how there’s never actually 30 better players in the world than Colbol? That’s how I feel about Fiction himself, but with my number being in the 10 to 15 range. Thankfully, he has the results within SoCal to show for it, with incredible consistency against the field and some standout wins vs. Jmook and Mang0 to boot (though in far less competitively serious circumstances). Unfortunately, by virtue of this being such a difficult field, and Fiction’s likely bracket paths, he ended up not faring too well in our simulations. Though he managed to finish in third place once, the most common outcome he had was 13th place, 44 times, with 24 ninth places after that.
Lucky finds himself in a similar spot, though he finished a bit higher due to having a relatively more doable draw in Wizzrobe in the first round. It’s worth noting that Lucky, despite having roughly similar odds overall to Fiction, finished in ninth place 33 times and 13th place 34 times. I do think this might just have just been the luck of the draw though; I see no reason to see Lucky as significantly more of having a fighting chance vs. the top seeds than Fiction.
Following these two SoCal players comes the silent Grim Reaper of CFL in Krudo. Krudo’s been a bit of a star at regionals, yet with major performances that leave much to be desired for someone who is literally 4-0 vs. KoDoRiN. The litany of Fox players in the field make this a tricky event for Krudo too, but weirdly enough, he was also one of the few major champions of my one hundred simulations. Granted, it was just once: in Simulation 63, where he defeated Zain in grand finals.
Speaking of people who have defeated Zain, the fact that Soonsay has done it a single time automatically boosts his underdog chances of winning LMMM. Unlike Krudo, it did not happen for Soonsay, but he got close, finishing in second place twice, the first time losing to Zain, and the second time losing to Hungrybox, of all people. The vast amount of Fox players here is both a boon and a curse for Soonsay, as it’s one of his strongest matchups, yet also one of the most volatile at his level of play.
Seeds 5 to 8
Just like I mentioned with Soonsay, the presence of so many Fox players here is the biggest boon and curse to Joshman’s chances. He performs really well vs. Jmook, typically outperforms his fellow Fox mains in the ditto, and is consistent overall, as shown by his great Function 4 victory. The problem is that my bracket matched him up against Zain in winners quarters, which kills Josh’s chances. For what it’s worth, it would be the same anyway if he faced Mang0, the other top seed here. Joshman ended up making the top eight 43 times, but his most common individual placement was ninth place, at 38.
NOTE: Josh, fortunately for him, is now playing Hungrybox instead of Zain. Before that, he has Salt. I think this will help. his median placement; I do not think it will help him realistically win this event multiple times in 100 tries.
I ended up giving Junebug a 25 percent chance vs. Zain, and I favored him against everyone in the 9 to 16 seeding range except for MOF, due to the matchup. He didn’t end up winning this event in 100 tries, likely due to him still having to defeat Zain, and then play Aklo or Jmook immediately after. This, mind you, is without getting into how difficult Mang0 looks for him too. And while Junebug did technically take Hungrybox close, I don’t buy that the environment of a show match is comparable to playing him in a tournament setting. The end results: Junebug came close to winning (second place) three times, but the most common outcome he had was ninth place. That approximately translates to “lose a heartbreaker to Mang0 and lose against another Top 25 player.”
NOTE: Junebug is now seeded to play Wizzrobe in Top 16; and if he wins, he’ll play Mang0 before then playing, in all likelihood, Jmook or Aklo. That feels brutal.
Wizzrobe has pretty awful chances here relative to what you’d expect; he only won four times. For this particular bracket, he’s closer to MOF and Krudo status as huge underdogs than he is to a leading contender like Zain. Mang0 and Ben hurt his chances, and even defeating Lucky isn’t necessarily a guarantee. His most common placement here was fifth place (25 times), and that was with a relatively favorable draw in Hungrybox for before top eight.
NOTE: Now Wizzrobe is seeded to play Junebug; if he wins that, as projected, he’ll run into Mang0. Respectfully again, RIP.
To conclude this segment, we have Jmook, who won our event a surprisingly high 18 out of one hundred times. I treated him vs. Zain as an ‘almost coin flip’ (40 percent). Doing well vs. Mang0 (58 percent) and Hungrybox (58 percent) helps his chances too – the real question mark is Aklo, who’s seemingly turned his head-to-head with Jmook around in recent times. In fact, each of Wizzrobe, Joshman, and MOF are relatively scary outs for him as well. Thankfully for Jmook, it’s not likely that he plays either of them until potentially entering losers bracket. If you’re going to pick a comeback event, this one is it, assuming Jmook does not sleep in again.
Seeds 1 to 4
I’m not a hater – I love Aklo’s Fox and think his recent rise has been incredible. But this is a bad field for him. Though he’s trended well vs. Hungrybox and Jmook, the whole ‘being roadkill for Zain and Mang0’ stops him from leaving major underdog territory. This bracket, full of terrifying Fox ditto specialists, is not kind to him either. Maybe if he doesn’t play Chem in top sixteen, I’ll feel differently, but even then it’s tough. His most common placement was ninth place (30 times).
NOTE: Aklo now has been given the fourth seed officially, but rather than playing Chem, Aklo has Krudo and Jmook. This will undeniably help his chances of winning, but because Zain is still lurking in the projected top eight matchup on winners side, I’m going to still give this a diagnosis of “joever.”
By the data, Hungrybox is firmly in the outskirts of major contention. By the vibes though? He’s Hungrybox. Are Zain, Jmook, and Wizzrobe really as hard as the data looks? It’s tough to say – months go by in between sets against any of those three, but by the eye test, it certainly seems like the Hungrybox we saw at Wavelength was a different beast. I ended up giving him a 20 percent chance vs. Zain (favorable considering, you know, the whole 0-420 thing), and 42 percent chances vs. Jmook and Wizzrobe based on long-term trends and potential shifts in those matchups. Him vs. Mang0 is basically a toss up. With this in mind, he won this event nine times and finished in second place 21 times.
With the amount of fast-fallers at this tournament, this is definitely a Falco bracket for Mang0. We’ve seen him ride that to winning two majors earlier this year; a third big win here is definitely somewhere in the cards. It’s just not very common because Zain is here, Jmook is here, Hungrybox is here, and, frankly speaking, Cody Schwab isn’t. Aklo, Wizzrobe, and the other Fox players being present is great for Mang0’s chances of consistently making it deep in bracket, but he realistically needs one of them to defeat Zain or he needs to recreate his Tipped Off performance, which doesn’t seem likely. I ended up giving Mang0 a 20 percent shot vs. Zain, and like with Hungrybox, that was me being generous. Regardless, he ended up winning this event 11 times, finishing in second place 22 times, and third place 18 times.
It’s to no one’s surprise that I’m once again picking Zain to win a major. In fact, he won 50 out of 100 ‘simulations’ for the event. He missed top eight only three times, presumably in universes where Zain decided to play Roy, DQ’d due to sickness, or promptly retired. Here’s a fun fact: if he won LMMM, Zain would have a sixth major win for 2024: the most any player has had since Hungrybox won six in 2019. You could even argue that this underplays Zain’s achievements this year, given that this statistic curiously doesn’t include Full Bloom. And most importantly, it would mark my sixth consecutive correct prediction. I think I’m the real winner here for finally breaking the Monday Morning Marth Curse.
What This All Looks Like In One Chart (Roughly)
Appendices: