This may come as a surprise to some of you, but I’ve never really been that big of a card game player. While I love playing blackjack with my friends, I am a novice at poker, having only played it for a bit in high school. In general, I’m not particularly interested in learning the ins and outs of the game beyond a casual level. With that said though, I know that Melee and poker actually have quite a bit of crossover, and I am interested in one upcoming event that seems to combine the two in Full House 2025: regional sponsor Lucky7’s ambitious debut into the major ecosystem. Featuring each of the three people who have won majors this year and 13 other of the best players in the world, this event is going to be a very big one.
Before getting the real meat of this tournament though, I would be remiss if I did not mention a series of unfortunate events that have both befallen its tournament organizers and become a recurring pattern for Melee community members to notice. Last week, the Lucky7 team deleted all tweets referencing Full House, additionally clarifying that it had to essentially nuke all references to outside intellectual property in its content. At a time in which big tournament organizers have had to take down event-specific merchandise and have publicly talked about it, this has become an especially turbulent time for people running events. By the way, there’s no use pretending whom the “IP-holder” is if you’re not running the event; the average community member has no obligation to pretend that Nintendo isn’t actively jeopardizing the scene’s independence.
Doing this topic justice is a time for another day though. For now, I’ve dusted off my previously cobweb-covered notes on poker to re-learn the basics. And by that, I mean I literally just had to remember how hands worked so I could discuss this event’s players under a thematic guideline. If you’ve read my major previews before, you know what’s coming next: roughly sixteen paragraphs about the sixteen people attending this event, as well as my final pick for who will take home the prize at Full House.
High Card
Is n0ne back? He’s one of those players whom I basically always have faith in to return to form following a slump. In recent times, I think his “comeback” has really just been a matter of whether or not he’s actually at a tournament. At Battle of BC 7, he nearly took his first set from Zain (not counting the farce show match they had at The Off-Season 2), still finishing in ninth place with wins over Joshman and Agent. Earlier in the year, he went to Florida and won a monthly over Panda; before that, he double eliminated BING at Launders LAN 2, also beating Zanya there. However, someone has to finish in last place here, and this field of competitors is fairly stacked against him. You never really know with n0ne though; if he get a loser’s path that turns out to be something like Trif, Aura, and Junebug, n0ne could suddenly be in contention for loser’s semifinals.
I’m feeling intense whiplash for having my man Aura this low in my preview section. I practically called this guy Top 10 a week ago and now I have him suddenly here as my fifteenth player despite the fact that he was one of the hottest players in the early spring. But it’s worth noting the actual structure of this event; Full House is following a Summit-style Swiss Pools-into-gauntlet-into-Top 16 structure. Although I don’t know the specific pools yet, I’m a little worried about how this will impact Aura. His penchant for spacie-slaying translates really well into a straight double-elimination bracket where he’s likely to benefit from specific paths opening up, and less so in another format. Honestly, even then, I find it really tough to look at anyone in this field and say, “Aura farms” or that Aura is favored against someone other than maybe Soonsay or Aklo.
One Pair
Somewhat like n0ne, Axe tends to be mercurial in terms of his commitment to competing, and he’s lately been on a high given his recent stretch of top eights and consistent wins over the field. I can’t justify placing him much higher because he has four extreme roadblocks to his success all here (Trif, Hungrybox, Mang0, and Cody Schwab), but if this event were a 16-person round-robin, I actually believe Axe would perform quite well against everyone combined. I’m less certain about his chances of actually winning because of his weaknesses, but Axe tends to benefit from bracket chaos, which seems relatively likely at this type of tournament. In fact, that’s basically what happened the last time he won a major: six years ago.
Krudo might actually be the best player in the world in one format: 2:00 a.m. netplay rotations with friends in voice chat. The world saw a glimpse of this type of dominance from Krudo at Full Bloom 2025, when he alternated between bulldozing and clutching out tight sets over Polish, Magi, Salt, and Ossify in one of the coolest runs of the year. At the same time, we’ve seen this type of excellence from Krudo multiple times against his peers, be it how he won Altitude Sickness last year or the multiple regionals he’s farmed as Melee’s silent mercenary. What we haven’t seen is Krudo turning this into a real major breakout – not merely making top eight, but beating someone like Zain or making grand finals. I don’t think it will happen here because it’s too hard, pound-for-pound, but I do think Krudo has a puncher’s chance against even the toughest players like Zain and Cody. Though that doesn’t make him favored, it’s enough to make him not instant roadkill, which already boosts the likelihood of him doing well here.
Two Pair
On the same note of “consistently great and yet consistently predictable” players that are practically set for anywhere from thirteenth place to fifth place at major tournaments, we get Salt. Like Axe, I think there’s a specific group of people I would maybe consider near-dead ends for her (Zain, Cody Schwab, Hungrybox, and Jmook), but unlike Axe, she has actually taken some of them to the brink in recent memory, which makes me a little more cautiously optimistic on her long-term trajectory against each of them. I’m also fairly sold on her against the middle of this field and believe she can beat both some of the sleeping giants here (like n0ne and Soonsay) as well as bring some of the rising stars (like Joshman and Junebug) back to reality.
Ever since his entry into the Top 100, Soonsay has become an icon of Western Canada and one of the sickest Fox players in the game. In the last few years, he’s made multiple major top eights and taken sets over players like Zain, Cody Schwab, moky, and Leffen, among others. Most people who follow his results will note that his performances typically come downstream of the type of bracket he has. The common belief among Melee fans is that if you give Soonsay something like fast-fallers and Sheik, suddenly he’s about to make top eight from winners side; throw an Ice Climbers or Donkey Kong or Pikachu into the picture though, and he’s in trouble. I don’t think this is too inaccurate, but there’s a bigger story of late in Soonsay’s recently shared doubts about his long-term Melee goals. He’s also coming off a relatively weak showing at Nouns Bowl where Drephen and Aklo beat him. Keeping that in mind, you can never really count out Soonsay in a Fox ditto, which increases his ceiling here. Also,in fairness to him, he did beat Junebug the last time they played.
Three of a Kind
I cannot believe we are here, in the year of our lord, 2025, and Junebug legitimately has a shot of winning a major. When you look at the Full House field, there is simply nobody here that he can’t beat. What’s especially wild about Junebug’s year is that he’s somehow exceeded all expectation by beating both the toughest opponent for a Donkey Kong (Jmook) and the best player in the world (Zain) and yet has failed to make a top eight. That’s not say he doesn’t have people here who would be favored or potentially upset him; simultaneously though, the lack of an immediate “run-ender” really does stand out and make him quite different from other Top 10 players. God. Junebug is a Top 10 player right now. I can’t get over that. He’s basically taken aMSa’s spot in the current metagame.
Let me clear: I am a long-term believer in Joshman. Like I mentioned with Aura, I think Joshman, by results, is a Top 10 player; in fact, I just dubbed him the current No. 4 by results. You might be wondering why I have him so low here given the unique peaks he has demonstrated against players like Cody Schwab, Jmook, and Aklo, let alone the fact he just showed them all at a major that he nearly won. But as I talked about before in with this tournament format, this is not a matter of having a very specific path beforehand, let alone one in which we have always known he could succeed (though admittedly unlikely for it to happen at once). Instead, Josh is going to have to play a large number of sets here with a pretty big target on his back. That’s not to say that he can’t succeed or won’t beat people here; I just am waiting to see if he really is a guarantee against the field in the same way as many of the players above him.
Straight
Trif had one of the craziest dream runs of all-time at Genesis. Heading into the tournament, I genuinely believed it was one of the worst possible paths that anyone could have built for him, and yet he somehow enacted revenge on each of S2J, Aklo, SDJ, and Mang0 before then defeating Wizzrobe and coming a game away from winning the supermajor, and mind you, that was against his worst possible opponent in Hungrybox. He then had one of the most unexpected returns to Earth at Valhalla V where the German Fox Rikzz ended up double-eliminating him in frankly surreal and dominant fashion. Which Trif is the real Trif? I legitimately have no idea.
Entering 2025, Aklo was all but considered the best active player in the world to not win a major, and it was fairly incontestable. Nowadays though, I’m not sure. The time period where he was casually placing in second at majors – even making it to grand finals from winners side – feels like forever ago in the wake of Aklo under-performing his seed or suffering an upset at each of Genesis, Full Bloom, and Nouns Bowl. However, I think he has the potential to shake things up here with another possible win over Zain. And while his most recent major ended on a disappointing note, Aklo still beat multiple people within this field and seems like a coin flip to still beat people like Hungrybox, moky, Joshman, and Trif. He doesn’t quite have control of the table here, but it’s clear he can punch up way harder than the people beneath him. Don’t forget that the beginning of 2024 was a rough period for Aklo too, and he ended up finishing No. 8 in the world with a period of time where he arguably performed like a top five player.
Flush
Something’s been going on with the Canadian Fox players these days; if they’re not suddenly more invested in doubles than singles, then they’re apparently lacking motivation, as moky himself has publicly admitted. But while the world has yet to see the return of the fully dialed in Don’t Park on The Grass champion, he’s still had plenty of strong results this year. We might have taken it for granted at the time, but the top eight he had at Genesis came with wins over Aklo and Aura, and his recent showing at Nouns Bowl still involved beating Axe. The specific lows he’s had this year don’t really translate into predicting how he will performs in this field; other than Zain, everybody else feels like a coin flip, better, or maybe slightly losing for him. If there’s an event to bet on a moky comeback, it’s probably this one.
In this same category of boom-or-bust players that have won majors, we have Jmook, whose 2025 has been all over the place, as I talked about in my unofficial Top 10 piece. I view him in this field like Junebug on steroids (which is ironic because one of his losses came to Junebug not on steroids); there’s no one present whom I think is an immediate roadblock for him, but there are two challenging opponents in particular (Joshman and Cody Schwab) that feel notable hard, and outside of Salt and n0ne, there’s no one here whom I feel confident about Jmook passing by. With that said though, we did see Jmook win another invitational in a marathon-sets-type approach six months ago, and I’m starting to believe Jmook’s turned around his rivalry with Zain toward being a tossup again.
Full House
A classic hand deserves a classic player comparison, which brings us to Hungrybox, the first major champion of 2025 and the most important one, having won Genesis. Honestly, there’s nothing that you likely don’t already know about his chances vs. the field (hard stops vs. Zain and Cody, slightly losing vs. moky, and even to strongly winning vs. everyone else), so I want to take this time to note all-time stakes at hand here. As I’ve written about before, Hungrybox is really not that far away from serious GOAT consideration. Winning small majors by itself doesn’t necessarily move the needle for him over Mang0 and Armada because he already has the most majors ever, but two things could start to give him the edge: winning supermajors like Genesis (which he did a few months ago) and finishing No. 1 in the world for another year. If he wins Full House, Hungrybox would be the leading favorite for No. 1 for Summer SSBMRank, as he’d have two major wins, separating himself from Zain and Cody Schwab. I’m skeptical of it actually happening because I don’t think he’ll be able to dodge either to win this event, but you can’t count it out.
What results are real and what results aren’t real from Mang0? I have no clue. Part of me sees his Battle of BC flame out at the hands of Aura and Zuppy and goes “no way that’s real,” but it’s not reasonable. His Genesis and Nouns Bowl showings leave a lot to be desired in a vacuum, but given the chaotic nature of the Top 10 right now, they honestly look pretty good on a head-to-head basis; just not good enough for serious major contention. If there’s a format for Mang0 to do “well enough” to make it to winners bracket while taking a few hits on the chin, Full House wouldn’t be a bad bet. In fact, with a bracket of Fox players or fast-fallers, I could see Mang0 riding high with Falco all day. Then again, I thought something like this was possible for Nounsvitational and then he proceeded to lose every single set and DQ from Top 16. I think I’m going to look like an idiot for having him this high once he inevitably places 13th again, but this is a very good field of fast-fallers, familiar opponents, and practice partners for him (though I still think Zain is an extremely tall order). I don’t know. It’s really frustrating to predict how he will do. If the field beneath him were not so volatile, I would probably have him much lower.
Straight/Royal Flush
The best of the best begins with Cody Schwab, who is fresh off approximately his 420th losers run to winning a major. Painting in broad strokes, the 2020s story of Cody is one where his head-to-heads against the field are overwhelmingly strong, and where the only real roadblock he ever has come in the form of sudden losses to mid-tiers or Mang0 (at least when Mang0 is in practice). Recently though, he finally overcame Zain, who had beaten him four times in a row prior to Nouns Bowl. For whatever it’s worth, I don’t really buy the idea of this matchup ever leaving coin flip territory though; it’s the premier rivalry of Melee, the two play each other all the time, and it’s to be expected that they go back and forth or having occasional win-streaks over the other. Nonetheless, for Full House, I really feel like Cody is just favored or even against everyone.
Unfortunately I feel that same way about Zain, to whom this applies to objectively even harder. While Junebug is a little scary, and Cody and Jmook are solid contenders to take him out, this is still Zain we’re talking about. One missed top eight in six years is not enough to dissuade me from the fact that this is a field ripe with fast-fallers and players that he typically trounces on the whole. I could see scenarios leading to relative underperformances from Zain – like if he lost to a combination of Cody and an ascendant Krudo in losers bracket – so it’s not impossible to see him tank, but I think it’s extremely unlikely. There’s not much to really say here; I think he’s the boring, yet safe pick to win Full House.